Simpson and Lawrence (1971) estimated the probability of tropical storms, 

 hurricanes, and major hurricanes for the 80 km (50 mi) coastline between 

 Biloxi, Mississippi, and Mobile, Alabama. They predict an annual probability 

 of 13% for a tropical storm, 6% for a hurricane, and 1% for a major hurricane 

 striking the area. 



The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, on the basis of previous records, have 

 predicted the probable recurrence interval for storm tides in coastal Alabama 

 (Table 33). At Dauphin Island, for example, an 11.5-ft tide would be 

 expected once every 100 years. These tides could occur in any year of the 

 time period or not occur at all. The predicted maximum height could also be 

 exceeded, as during Hurricanes Camille and Fredric (Chermock 1976). 



Winds within hurricanes, like tornadoes, travel counterclockwise in the 

 northern hemisphere. Winds are most intense near the center (eye) of the 

 storm, although the eye itself is fairly calm. As the hurricane moves 

 forward, winds are highest on the right side and weakest on the left. The 



Table 33. Probable recurrence interval for storm tides in coastal Alabama 

 (Chermock 1976). 



Elevation above mean water level (ft) 



Location 1 Year 10 Years 20 Years 50 Years 100 Years 



Coastal Area-Fort 



Morgan to Gulf Shores 



(Pensacola quad) 3.6 7.0 8.3 10.2 11.4 



Bayou St. John Area 



(Pensacola quad) 3.0 5.0 6.2 7.2 8.5 



Perdido and Wolf 



Bay Area 



(Pensacola quad) 2.6 3.9 4.7 5.7 6.5 



Grand Bay and 



Bayou La Batre 



(Biloxi quad) 3.6 11.4 13.2 



Dauphin Island 



(Biloxi quad) 3.6 5.8 11.5 



Mobile Bay 



(Mobile quad) 3.6 9.4 10.6 



137 



