1 88 Tra nsuct ion s . — Miscellaneous . 



changes in the balance of trade for the United Kingdom. We 

 see quoted sometimes with alarm the great rise from £81,000,000 

 in 1887 to £183,000,000 in 1903, a change averaging nearly 

 £0,500,000 a year over a period of sixteen years. But this change 

 is in character and magnitude by no means unique. In the 

 five years from 1872 to 1877 the balance of trade rose from 

 £40,000,000 to £142,000,000, an average of £20,000,000 a year. 

 That such changes need not be due to freedom of trade is clear 

 when we compare with them corresponding changes that have 

 taken place in the commerce of other nations that have had in 

 operation considerable protective duties. The balance of trade 

 of Germany increased from a negative balance of £5,000,000 in 

 1886 to a positive balance of £53,000,000 in 1892, and further 

 to £66,000,000 in 1898, being an average of £10,000,000 a year 

 in the earlier period, and of £6,000,000 a year during the whole 

 period of twelve years. The balance of trade of France increased 

 from a negative balance of £13,500,000 in 1875 to a positive 

 balance of £62,500,000 in 1880, an average annual increase of 

 £15,000,000. These changes during comparatively small periods 

 in the balance of trade in Germany and France are quite as con- 

 siderable, or, relatively to the total foreign trades of the respective 

 countries, more considerable, than those for the United Kingdom. 



If there are any peculiar features in the balance of trade for 

 the United Kingdom, they do not consist, then, in the fluctuations 

 that take place during five, ten, or fifteen years, but in the great 

 magnitude of the balance of trade as it stands at present, and in 

 the way it has increased, not merely during the last few years — 

 which increase may be considerably affected by one of those 

 temporary fluctuations which the trade of no nation can be freed 

 from — but, apart from such fluctuations, for the whole of the 

 period which fig. I illustrates. 



The dotted line serves to show roughly the general trend of 

 the balance of trade. It will be noticed that the fluctuations in 

 the graph of the balance of trade relatively to this line represent 

 changes not at all considerable compared with the total volume 

 of trade. The average rise during the whole period is less than 

 that during the years 1872-77, or during 1887-1902 : during each 

 of these latter periods we have a temporary fluctuation combin- 

 ing with the rise due to the more permanent causes in operation, 

 producing a very rapid rise, but even then such only as can be 

 paralleled, as we have seen, from the balances of trade of other 

 countries. It is grossly unfair to compare the balance of trade 

 for a minimum year with that for a maximum year without 

 distinguishing these two elements. 



Of late much has been made of this rise in the balance of 

 British trade. But before we can infer anything as to the sound- 



