Segak. — The Balance of Trade. 189 



ness of British trade and prosperity from this rapid growth it is 

 necessary to analyse its contributing causes. 



Now, to begin with, England, as a great capitalist nation, 

 possesses capital all over the world advanced as loans and in- 

 vested in industries and commercial undertakings. From this 

 she has to receive interest and profits. Now, in 1901-2 the 

 profits that could be identified as foreign for income-tax purposes 

 was £62,500,000. But the Board of Trade report on British and 

 foreign trade and industry points out " that this total only in- 

 cludes foreign and colonial securities, coupons, and railways, and 

 hence is exclusive of the return on British capital invested in a 

 large number of miscellaneous industrial enterprises abroad. 

 It is, moreover, certain that the profits assessed to income-tax 

 form only part of the whole, and that some of these profits escape 

 assessment, while others are not identified as foreign. . . . 

 We are justified in concluding that £62,500,000 is a minimum 

 figure, which is probably largely exceeded, though we are unable 

 to say by how much." Sir Robert Giffen in 1898 estimated the 

 total at £90,000,000. There is no one in a better position to 

 judge, and his authority is admitted and his estimates accepted 

 by many who would be glad to be able to reject them if they 

 reasonably could. 



Another item for which England has to receive payment is 

 the services of her shipping. It is impossible here to go into 

 the detail by which this matter has been investigated. It is 

 sufficient to notice that, making every allowance for expenses 

 incurred abroad in connection with the carrying trade, the Board 

 of Trade report regards £90,000,000 again as a minimum estimate 

 of the amount of imports earned by British shipping. 



These two items are the greatest, but there are many other 

 which, though of smaller amount, are yet each substantial, and 

 probably in the total very considerable. But these are even 

 more difficult to investigate than the others. All we can say is 

 that the best statistical talent that England can supply is agreed 

 in assigning £180,000,000 as the smallest possible income derived 

 from abroad at the present time in respect to the two main items 

 alone. 



When any comparison is made between any such estimate 

 as to what the United Kingdom earns abroad and the balance 

 of trade, it is to be remembered that the degree of accuracy with 

 which the values of imports and exports are returned is of great 

 importance. Such errors as exist are probably comparatively 

 unimportant in comparisons of like returns for different periods, 

 for they no doubt tend in the same direction at different times, 

 and are roughly proportional to the totals. But in comparing 

 an estimate deduced from them with one derived from altogether 



