Future projections suggest increase in "demand" for electricity for the Chesapeake 

 Bay Market Area of approximately 13.5 times from about 1975 to 2020 (Corps of 

 Engineers, 1977). While this projection may be modified by changes in priorities and 

 costs for fuel, it is clear that effective protection of water quality must indeed be 

 based upon well-informed and careful management of the facilities. 



Spills 



Accidental spills and deliberate releases are never fully documented at large 

 centers of shipping and industry like Baltimore and Norfolk-Newport News, but the 

 recording and response to these localized accidental releases and to accidents in 

 transit are improving under 1970 federal direction to the U.S. Coast Guard and im- 

 proved cleanup programs by Virginia, Maryland, and involved industries. 

 Petroleum products and toxic chemicals cause the greatest concern, but hundreds of 

 other materials are sometimes released into the system. The general topic of "Preven- 

 tion and Control of Spills" was treated extensively by a workshop report and 

 extended discussion at the Bi-State Conference on the Chesapeake Bavin 1977 (Hess 

 et al., 1977). In 1975 and 1976 an annual average of 740 spills releasing 334,700 

 gallons of materials were reported. Petroleum products provided 72 percent, mostly 

 heavy oils. Several serious groundings and other accidents have occurred, and the 

 workshop report and others at' that Conference stressed the critical importance of 

 adequate operating requirements for vessels, safe techniques for transfers, improved 

 vessel traffic management, better data management, and increased public concern 

 and action (Hess et al.. 1977; Villa et al., 1977). 



Petroleum products have been the center of increased attention. Bulk oil traffic, 

 about 39,000,000 short tons in 1970, has been projected to double by the year 2020 

 (Corps of Engineers, 1977). Spills of up to 240,000 gallons in this nearly enclosed, 

 slowly flushed, biologically useful system have prompted much concern. Drawing 

 from research and experience both within the Chesapeake region and from other 

 sources, several summaries and general analyses of probabilities, fate, and effects of 

 oil spills have been developed. (Chesapeake Bay Foundation. 1977; Cronin, L., 1976; 

 Farrington, 1977; Hess et al., 1977; Rose, 1974). At least one reviewer noted that oil 

 spills in the Chesapeake are far below a reported world average of . 16 percent of total 

 transport and attributed this fact to care in navigation, piloting, handling in port, 

 and other effective methods of prevention (Cronin, 1976). 



The fate of a hypothetical oil spill near the center of the Chesapeake Bay was 

 modeled with estimation of the sites, kinds, and magnitudes of effects (Kelly. 1976). 

 A 120.000-gallon crude oil spill might contaminate 144 to 320 km (90 to 200 mi) of 

 shoreline and substantially damage wetlands, waterfront, and commercially 

 valuable invertebrates over at least 2 to 4 years. The Bay appears to be on borrowed 

 time, and a major spill and very serious damage seem inevitable within a decade or so 

 (Cronin, 1976; Chesapeake Bay Foundation, 1977). 



Only one oil refinery is operated in the Bay region, at Yorktown, Virginia. No 

 catastrophic effects have been reported, but there has been strong opposition to a 

 refinery proposed in the Baltimore area, a refinery at Portsmouth, Virginia, and a 

 large oil terminal at Piney Point in the Potomac River. Objections have been based 

 on the dangers of spillage from transfers and operations, the existence of critically 

 important aquatic resources near each of these sites, and the probability that delete- 

 rious effects would last for many years. The Baltimore and Potomac proposals have 

 been defeated or withdrawn, but the Portsmouth terminal and refinery has, at this 

 time, passed many local, state, and federal hurdles. It has not yet been constructed 

 (Chambers. 1979)". 



Toxicants 



Metals and other chemicals that can be detrimental to uses of the Bay are intro- 

 duced in sewage and also from industry, accidents, surface runoff, and from the 

 tributary rivers. One study found that sewage treatment plants introduce about as 

 much cadmium, copper, zinc, and lead to the Bay system as is received from the 



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