estuaries) lies in development of abilities to perform feasible laboratory bio- 

 assay tests and to predict realistically the impacts of the tested chemical or 

 conditions on the principal organisms of the Bay and on the ecosystem. Present 

 standard tests do not provide such prediction, except in very gross terms. 

 Testing for acute and chronic effects, behavioral and physiological response 

 measurement, extension of laboratory results to predict responses in the 

 estuary — these and other difficult research areas must be explored far more 

 fully. 



7. Development, testing, anil permanent maintenance of excellent inventory and 

 monitoring of the Bay. Inventory of components and proper monitoring are 

 needed to provide long-term descriptions, detect important changes, assist 

 effective enforcement, and indicate vacancies where additional research is 

 required. The vital signals of the system must be tracked for the total system 

 and for the significant subdivisions — individual tributaries and inherently 

 different segments of the open Bay. 



8. Development and use of comprehensive systems for the management and 

 distribution of data and information. Massive quantities of data are required 

 and are now being produced. Better approaches are required, however, if they 

 are to be adequate in scope, efficiently integrated, and readily available for 

 retrieval, interpretation, and use. Similarly, technical and popular information 

 must be better assembled, expressed, and distributed to users. 



Assessment 



The decade of the 1970s has been a period of exceptional change in pollution 

 aspects of Chesapeake Bay, much of which favors improvement in protection of 

 water quality. Notable federal legislation and a substantial body of recent state law 

 has set new goals and established new mechanisms for regulation and enforcement. 

 New and stronger management agencies have been created. Related research has 

 been conducted at unpredicted levels of funding and sophistication. Analytic capa- 

 bilities have improved until they sometimes threaten to overwhelm with informa- 

 tion. Fresh assessments have been made of water quality in the estuary and in the 

 watershed, and comprehensive projections have been essayed for the future 40 years. 

 Maryland and Virginia have progressed from occasional reactive cooperation to 

 establishment of positive and continuing interaction on Bay problems and needs at 

 both executive and legislative levels. Public awareness and concern have been 

 enhanced and support high environmental quality in the Bay. 



However, not all changes in the 1970s demonstrate or promise improvements in 

 environmental quality. Population growth continues at many sites, some of which 

 are already heavily loading the estuary. Exotic toxic organic chemicals, to which the 

 Bay biota is quite vulnerable, are continuously generated and sometimes released. 

 The Kepone tragedy is a frightening example of failure of agencies and procedures 

 established to protect the environment and a disturbing case of the extensive and 

 enduring damage that is possible. Spills and near-spills (for example, the Maria 

 Costa) continue, and shipping is expanding. A severe tropical storm demonstrated 

 the capacity of natural events to overwhelm treatment facilities and management 

 programs. Nuclear generating systems on the estuary and on the tributaries 

 exemplify the very large scale of potential engineering changes and the massive 

 uncertainties of the environmental effects of failure of a nuclear operation. Battles 

 over power plant and refinery siting, placement of toxic dredged material and sewage 

 sludge, and the management of sewage have not provided guarantees that 

 environmental quality will be assured in these and other matters. 



A principal protection device, the National Pollution Discharge Elimination 

 System, appears to be grossly inadequate in describing or controlling pollution from 

 industrial and domestic systems. Nutrient concentrations of threatening levels have 

 been shown to be progressing down the tributaries and the main stem of the Bay. 

 Conversion of wastes to useful resources has not been adequately accomplished. 



40 



