should increase about 90% by 1985 (from 55 million in 1974 to 105 million in 

 1985), independent of the population increase. The nonmarket value of the 

 sport fishery probably would increase by about $133 million. 



The saltwater sport fishery, on the same basis, had a value of $2 billion 

 and supported 118,000 jobs (Bell 1979). The commercial saltwater fishery sup- 

 ports 36,262 jobs and an industry worth about $160 million per year. 



An estimate of the dockside value of the marine landings in the counties 

 of Florida are given in Figure 1. The average annual value of the fisheries 

 yield was between $5 and $8 million in Sarasota, Charlotte, and Monroe Coun- 

 ties, between $1 and $5 million annually for Pinellas and Hillsborough 

 Counties, and between $0.5 million and $1 million for Manatee and Collier 

 Counties. This income is a major part of the local economies of these coun- 

 ties. For further details on sport fishing, consult the synthesis paper on 

 recreation and tourism in this report. 



Potential catch increases in the Class Il-dependent shellfishery area 

 were examined by Bell and Canterbury (1976). This study sponsored by the 

 National Commission on Clean Water, forecasts that if goals of the Clean Water 

 Act are met in Florida, landings from estuarine and Class Il-dependent fishery 

 areas would increase from 1972 to 1980 by 10.5 million lb for lobster, 15,2 

 million lb for oysters, 765,000 lb for scallops, 8.9 million lb for crabs, and 

 19.7 million lb for shrimp. Menhaden are expected to increase by almost 14 

 million lb because of improvements in water quality. 



The relative value of wetlands and Class II fishery areas can be esti- 

 mated through economic methodology. A study on the marine estuarine resources 

 of Northwest Florida was completed for the Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile 

 (Edmunsten 1977). This survey covered the eight coastal counties from Escam- 

 bia County east to Wakulla County, but is applicable to Southwest Florida as 

 well. Fifteen estuaries were identified including the major Class II areas. 

 In a study by Bell (1977) the average value per acre of estuary was $60.91. 

 Another study completed by Gosselink et al. (1973) gave a value of $75.00 per 

 acre of estuary. Bell estimated that $13.83 per acre may be lost in Class II 

 estuaries of Santa Rosa County if the Navarre Pass reopens (Bell 1977). 



Other estimates of pollution impacts verify the high value of fisheries. 

 One researcher (Terbonne 1973) estimated that fishery losses from water pol- 

 lution alone in the Pensacola area in 1972 were over $3 million. The initial 

 effects on fisheries can further be magnified throughout the economy by multi- 

 plier effects. 



FORECAST AND TRENDS 



Attempts have been made in several publications to correlate water qual- 

 ity in rivers, lakes, and estuaries with point and nonpoint water pollution 

 and to forecast conditions and problems. One of the most useful analyses was 

 made in Section V of the Water Quality Assessment (Florida State Department of 

 Environmental Regulation 1979a) report on "Statistical Analysis of Water Qual- 

 ity Versus Point and Nonpoint Sources." The significance of the comparisons 

 were made by determining correlation coefficients in an attempt to establish 

 pollution loadings and levels and future forecasts. Coefficients among the 



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