FOREWORD 



Marine ecosystem modeling has evolved significantly since Fleming 

 (1939)1 formulated and published his phytoplankton population dynamics model 

 for the English Channel. Aside from the variation in modeling approaches and 

 techniques, the change has been most apparent in two areas: (1) model com- 

 plexity and resolution and (2) model application. Model development in the 

 first area is a natural outgrowth of computer technology and advances in 

 marine ecology. The second area, model application, is a direct consequence 

 of the national environmental awareness of the late 1960s and the ensuing 

 environmental legislation of the early 1970s. A new category of models has 

 been developed — predictive models for application to environmental impact 

 assessment and natural resource management. 



Management of marine resources, especially living resources, within a 

 framework of sound environmental and economic practices and principles is dif- 

 ficult and complex. Vast amounts of multidisciplinary data must be collected, 

 analyzed, interpreted, assimilated, and forged into a reasonable and workable 

 management plan. These plans should (1) prevent irreversible or unacceptable 

 degradation of the environment, (2) deter overexploitation of valuable re- 

 sources, (3) minimize multiple use conflicts, and (4) provide alternative man- 

 agement strategies designed to protect the environment. The decisionmaking 

 process is complicated by the need to develop plans before the environment is 

 insulted. 



Resource managers could easily be overwhelmed by the volume and diversity 

 of data and information necessary to today's environmental planning process. 

 They need tools which will integrate existing knowledge into useful frames of 

 reference. Additionally, they need tools which will allow them to assess in 

 advance possible consequences of the various management options. Ecosystem 

 modeling is such a tool. Obviously it is not the only tool, but it is one 

 which can be of great assistance to the decisionmaker. Wise use of ecosystem 

 modeling requires awareness of the limitations and capabilities of modeling. 

 The participants in this workshop have provided, and, I hope will continue to 

 provide much needed guidance and insight, 



John V. Byrne 

 \dministrator 



itional Oceanic and Atmospheric 



Adminis trat ion 

 U.S. Department of Commerce 



^-Fleming, R. H. 1939. The control of diatom population by grazing. J. Cons 

 Perm. Expl. Mer. 14:210-227. 



