A DECISION ORIENTATION FOR MARINE POLLUTION ASSESSMENT 



In figure 1, environmental assessment is depicted as an integral part of a 

 rational decision process. The figure explicitly relates the past and proposed 

 activities of man to the potential environmental consequences of those activities 

 and to the processes of analysis, decision, and regulation through which we 

 manage or control the activities. The starting point for the overall process 

 is problem perception, which arises from resource-use conflicts between ocean 

 pollution and other ocean uses. These perceived conflicts may result from 

 proposed human activities, or from the consequences of past human activities. 

 The decision process (steps 2-5 in fig. 1) is initiated in response to the 

 perceived problem. 



The first step in the decision process is to identify the alternatives (2) 

 which may be taken to reduce or eliminate the problem. For each of these 

 alternatives, then, potential outcomes must be identified and quantified (3). 

 Since some outcomes will be conditional upon the occurrence of uncertain or 

 stochastic events or processes, the likelihood of these events must be established 

 and incorporated into a probability of occurrence for each of the outcomes. 

 The probable outcomes should be quantified in objective terms, as nearly free 

 of implicit values as possible. To each of the probable outcomes, the ultimate 

 decisionmaker(s) must ascribe some measure of value (4) that allows comparison 

 of overall costs and benefits associated with each probable outcome and each 

 alternative. Once the alternatives have been so evaluated, then selection of 

 the optimal alternative (5) is straightforward. The reasonable or rational 

 decisionmaker will select that alternative with the lowest expected overall cost 

 (or the greatest expected overall benefit). 



Once a particular decision alternative is implemented, of course, the 

 actual outcome (6) depends upon those numerous stochastic processes and events 

 that were (hopefully) identified and used in the assessment or prediction step 

 (3). This actual outcome may be perceived as a new problem and may initiate 

 another, subsequent decision process. It must be emphasized that a good decision 

 does not always produce a good outcome. A good decision is one based on a 

 logical treatment of the information, values, and preferences of the decision- 

 maker^); whereas a good outcome is one that is favorably regarded by the 

 decisionmaker(s) (Matheson and Howard 1968). Stochastic processes or events 

 may in fact lead to low-risk, but highly unfavorable, outcomes. It becomes 

 essential, therefore, that all available and relevant information is considered 

 and used appropriately in the assessment or prediction step (3), and that the 

 values" or preferences of the decisionmaker^ ) are accurately reflected in step 

 (4) for each of the possible outcomes identified and quantified in step (3). 



The steps shown in figure 1 constitute a basic, generic environmental 

 assessment and pollution management approach which can be systematically applied, 

 documented, tested, and improved as new management options come under considera- 

 tion. The traditional elements of environmental assessment are mostly contained 

 in step (3) of the process: predictively defining and quantifying potential 

 pollution-related outcomes for the marine environment. It must be recognized, 

 however, that reliable prediction, even in a probabilistic sense, of many 

 environmental characteristics is beyond the present state-of-the-art. It is 

 important to recognize the entire decision and assessment process, therefore, 



