as an iterative and adaptive process (Holling 1978), in which best-effort 

 predictive assessment is performed to verify the adequacy of the predictions 

 and the appropriateness of the policy. 



Explicit recognition of the decision process is helpful in anticipating 

 the management alternatives that may be considered and the values that may be 

 used in decisionmaking. These in turn aid in the identification of research 

 programs and information products needed most in the decision process. 

 Formalization of the decision process thus provides a structure for the assessment 

 program: 



a) Prior identification of resource-use conflicts, potential management 

 alternatives, and values related to outcomes guides the specification 



of environmental characteristics and processes most in need of research, 

 which should be oriented toward reliable measurement and prediction of 

 outcomes . 



b) Identification of the specific outcomes relevant to the decision 

 process guides the specification of the monitoring (long-term research) 

 programs that are required to test and validate the predictions used 



to identify the optimal pollution control strategy. 



It should be emphasized that together the environmental assessment, waste 

 disposal strategy or policy, and research-monitoring design constitute an 

 iterative experimental approach. In this evolving and adaptive approach, a 

 particular pollution management strategy is selected and implemented as the 

 optimal alternative, based on the best available technical information and the 

 applicable values at the time. This pollution management strategy or policy 

 leads to a large-scale and long-term waste management program. Stipulations in 

 the program policy pre-establish the limits of allowable environmental change, 

 and the disposal practices are designed so as not to exceed those limits. The 

 sampling design and analytical requirements of the research-monitoring program 

 are specified (ahead of time) to determine the changes that actually occur. If 

 the pre-established limits are unexpectedly approached, then both the predictive 

 methodology and the disposal practices can be appropriately modified. In a 

 sense, the waste management program constitutes a large-scale environmental 

 experiment, in which the expected limits of environmental change are hypothesized 

 (predicted) for certain stipulated disposal conditions, and a research-monitoring 

 program is implemented to validate the hypothesis and to provide a basis for 

 modifying the stipulations in the event the predictions were in error. 



It is essential that more concerted effort be placed on management-oriented 

 marine environmental assessment and on formulation of optimal marine disposal 

 strategies and policies so that valid judgments and selections may be made 

 among atmospheric, aquatic, and land-based disposal alternatives. Historically, 

 environmental assessment programs have contributed to the overall understanding 

 of fate and effects of pollutants in the environment. Future improvements in 

 this understanding can contribute much more directly and effectively to pollution 

 management if the decision process is explicitly recognized and the decision 

 analysis techniques are applied. 



