Computerized modeling techniques have been developed for structuring and 

 analyzing decisions. For example QUICKTREE® is a set of APL functions designed 

 to assist in evaluating decision trees with up to 1000 trajectories (alternative- 

 outcome combinations). This program was developed by the Decision Analysis 

 Group of SRI International, Menlo Park, California. * 



SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS 



1. Marine pollution assessment would serve environmental management decision 

 needs much more effectively if the assessment and decision processes were 

 integrated through a systems analysis of waste disposal management decision 

 problems . 



2. In such a decision-analytical approach, the objectives of the environmental 

 assessment are focused by the available alternatives and the values of the 

 decisionmaker, and the modeling needs can be successively refined through 

 sensitivity analysis oriented toward those limited objectives. 



3. Generic consideration of marine pollution problems suggests major environ- 

 mental modeling needs in the following areas: 



A. Transport and Transformations of Pollutants 



1. dispersion of dissolved and suspended materials 



2. bed load transport 



3. adsorption dynamics 



4. bioturbation 



5. evaporation-dissolution 



6. physical-chemical transformations (state changes, chemical reactions, 

 decomposition, etc.). 



B. Bio accumulation and Effects 



1. uptake-depuration kinetics 



C. Population Dynamics of Key Species 



D. Ecosystem Modeling 



1 . nutrient-planktonic dynamics 



2. stability-rr.siliency-recovery from stress. 



4. Decision-analytic modeling and systems approaches are currently available 

 and are applicable to marine pollution management problems. Effective 

 application requires close interaction among environmental scientists 

 and modelers, decisionmakers, and systems or decision analysts. 



^Mention of tradenames does not imply endorsement by NOAA or the Department of 

 Commerce. 



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