Environment (E) . The physical environment component refers to the flux of 

 temperature, salinity, and nutrients in the water. The environmental effects 

 are usually subtle, often difficult to predict, and always difficult to sample. 

 This element is subdivided into two aspects — the natural environment and the 

 man-created environment (e.g., pollution). 



For a moment let's look, at each of these variables and examine how they 

 can be used to evaluate our program and its usefulness to the country. 



We are often asked by our bosses, "How much is enough?" In figure 3 each 

 of these "system" variables (F, P, D, and E) has been evaluated by the appropriate 

 staff members of the Center. These are performance functions and they are 

 their estimates of the value of information provided by these experts in 

 answering questions asked of them. Program cost is displayed on the X axis and 

 the relative value of information on the Y axis. Perfect information, of 

 course, is represented by 1 and is not attainable. The dots on the curves 

 represent our estimate of our present position. In a way you can call this the 

 "expert's comfort (or discomfort) index." You will note in the performance 

 function for F (Fishing), the experts estimate their present ability to provide 

 information as approximately 0.46. It is costing us approximately $6 million 

 to provide this information. The F_ function has been broken down into two 

 curves. The lower curve is concerned with the data collected from the fishermen 

 themselves. In terms of predicting change, it very quickly flattens out. The 

 reason for this is obvious. Fishermen go to those areas where the fish congre- 

 gate and the data collected from them is accordingly strongly biased when used 

 to estimate population size. This is the same bias that a census taker would 

 experience were he to be confined solely to basing his estimates on the popula- 

 tion of our country on New Year's Eve in Times Square. Catch data has some 

 real value up to a point, but beyond that point it tells you virtually nothing. 

 In order to significantly improve the amount of information from such data, 

 more than the expenditure of money would be involved. One would virtually 

 have to mandate nearly perfect data from each fishing vessel and from a socio- 

 logical point of view that is a virtual impossibility. The other curve is 

 based on data that activities such as research vessel surveys would provide, 

 the more appropriate and unbiased census type data which is necessary to make 

 a prediction. 



In the case of predation and disease research, the costs for significant 

 information are not as overwhelming as they are for developing appropriate F_ 

 information. In no small part this is because much of the data required can 

 be, and is, collected during cruises carried out for other purposes. Further, 

 such data is used more abstractly - in prediction models - where the principles 

 are as important as the facts. The environmental curves have been subdivided 

 into two components, that which is natural and that which is man-caused. The 

 value of information available today is estimated at about 0.3, mostly because 

 of our inability to deal with the flux of the environment in real time using 

 such sampling tools as vessels. It is in this curve that one sees the opportunity 

 for a small investment in modern technology that would greatly increase the 

 value of information that can be provided. This technology exists - it is 

 called remote sensing. The man-caused environmental changes potentially can 

 reach a higher level of information value than can any other category, simply 

 because the man-caused environmental effects tend to persist for a long time, 

 as for example DDT, which can now be found throughout the world. 



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