index value on participation we would require measures of pre-policy index 

 values appropriate to each state. For example: 



- If we had species availability data, we might use the analog to our 

 freshwater measures, state acres per capita of water dominated by 

 particular species types. 



- For abundance, we might use average state saltwater bags. 



- For ecosystem "health" we might use a state index of marine water 

 quality, perhaps one created out of a combination of species dominance 

 and abundance measures. 



In any event, the basic problem is finding a measure for which values are 

 available for all coastal states... no trivial requirement. One route to such 

 knowledge that might be explored is via state fish and game departments, coastal 

 zone commissions, sea grant universities, and other state and local institutions, 

 This would involve a mail survey supplemented as necessary with phone calls and 

 even personal visits. Our experience with a similar study in the freshwater 

 context was that a significant fraction of the actual respondents (staff bio- 

 logists) will quarrel with the terms of reference and even with the purpose 

 of the overall project and only grudgingly provide their own versions of local 

 knowledge. 



CONCLUSION 



In short we cannot be entirely sanguine about the prospects for successful 

 completion of a study in the marine context analogous to our study of the bene- 

 fits of water pollution control accruing via freshwater recreational fishing. 

 The major reason for this very cautious view is the apparent lack of an index 

 of water or ecosystem quality about which we know enough to provide model links 

 backward to pollution discharges and forward to angler perceptions and tastes. 

 Important questions for this workshop might well be: 



- To what extent can existing marine ecosystem models provide 

 predictions in terms relevant to pollution control policy 

 assessment — whether strictly benefit estimation or something 

 not involving translation to dollar terms? 



- If our rather negative answer to this question for marine 

 recreational fishing holds across other benefit categories, such as 

 swimming and commercial fishing, should it matter to NOAA? To the 

 modelers at this workshop? 



- If it does matter, what might be done to improve the situation? 

 Is it entirely a matter of long-run research, or are there short 

 run improvements that could be made by, for example, clever linking 

 of existing models and isolated research results? 



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