can undergo a single pollutant event with relatively small losses in projected 

 catch. Herring, on the other hand, with its weak compensation shows a much 

 greater sensitivity to losses of new recruits. 



The presence and duration of the Georges Bank circulation gyre, as represented 

 by the simple parameterization used here, are important factors in determining 

 impact magnitudes. Significantly higher egg and larval mortality are observed 

 if the gyre is present, because this circulation feature increases the exposure 

 time of spawned products to toxic levels of the pollutant. This simple simulation 

 demonstrates that the circulation features of this area must be carefully considered 

 in order to make realistic assessments of impacts. 



While significant progress has been made through this modeling approach 

 in understanding the impact of oil spills on a commercial fishery, we have 

 only taken the first step. The most important lesson of the research to date 

 is that realistic impact assessment procedures need to take an integrated view 

 of the environment. The interrelationships among the components of the physical 

 and biological systems under study must be correctly represented within the 

 model to provide a sound basis for rational resource management decisions. As 

 with all productive modeling studies the present work has helped focus on the 

 changes necessary to improve the credibility and accuracy of the model system. 

 Efforts are currently in progress to further validate and upgrade each component 

 of the impact assessment methodology. 



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 



This work was funded by the United States Department of the Interior, 

 Minerals Management Service (MMS) under contract AA851-CTO-75, with Dr. William 

 Lang of the MMS New York Outer Continental Shelf Office serving as the technical 

 contract monitor. To complete a modeling project as large and comprehensive as 

 that outlined here has required the combined talents of a large integrated 

 multi-disciplinary team. Key team members and their areas of contribution are 

 as follows: M.L. Spaulding, Department of Ocean Engineering, and S.B. Saila, 

 Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island - principle 

 investigators; E. Lorda, H. Walker and V. Pigoga, University of Rhode Island, 

 Graduate School of Oceanography - fishery modeling; C. Swanson and T. Isaji, 

 Applied Science Associates, Inc. - hydrodynamic modeling; M. Reed, E. Anderson, 

 Applied Science Associates, Inc. - oil spill fates and ichthyoplankton transport 

 modeling. The typing of this paper in its numerous versions was performed with 

 admirable good cheer by Ms. Teri Highling of Applied Science Associates, Inc. 



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