Panel B - Ecosystem Modeling as an Environmental Management Tool 



Panelists: Bernard C. Patten, Chairman 

 Kenneth Webb, Chairman 

 Walter Boynton 

 Joan Browder 

 William Forster 

 Peter Grose 

 Wiley Kitchens 

 C. Bruce Koons 

 James Kremer 

 Donald Scavia 

 Eric D. Schneider 

 Peter Schroeder 

 Jay Taft 



I. INTRODUCTION 



The Panel identified six subtopics under the general heading "Ecosystem 

 Modeling as an Environmental Management Tool" for discussion. These subtopics 

 are: 1) state-of-the-art with respect to management application; 2) technical 

 basis of modeling; 3) interactions among managers, modelers, and research 

 scientists; 4) transferability of models; 5) translation of modeling results to 

 environmental quality criteria; and, 6) use of existing data bases. 



The Panel formed subpanels, each of which was tasked with addressing one 

 of the specific topic areas. A Panel consensus was formed for each specific 

 topic, and a priority list of recommended high return research activities which 

 would enhance the usefulness and effectiveness of ecosystem modeling as a 

 resource management tool was generated. 



II. STATE-OF-THE-ART WITH RESPECT TO MANAGEMENT APPLICATIONS 

 Overview 



Ecosystem modeling is an attempt to describe mathematically the structure 

 and function of ecosystems. This mathematical representation of natural systems 

 is perhaps the most difficult task in ecology since it requires an understanding 

 of the physical, chemical, and biological variables, processes, and interactions 

 that give rise to ecosystem states. The science of ecology is hampered by 

 several inherent problems that make mathematical modeling of ecosystems or 

 ecosystem components difficult. Ecology is an immature science and as such it 

 lacks the theoretical richness of the physical and chemical sciences. It has 

 few, if any, theories that allow precise predictions of organismic or ecosystem 

 state as a function of abiotic and biotic forcings. For example, physics has 

 its force and energy laws that allow rather precise estimates of at least 

 average physical states, and chemists can calculate reaction kinetics and 

 byproducts. In contrast, ecologlsts have not yet been able to tie their science 

 to proven mechanistic or empirical relationships of cause and effect. 



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