Panel D - Integrating Ecosystem Modeling Into a Socio-Economic Framework 



Panelists: Daniel Basta, Chairman 



Brain Rothschild, Chairman 



Susan Brunenmeister 



Carol Cummings 



Walter "Hal" Delaplane 



Peter Fricke 



Michael Kemp 



Clifford Russell 



Robert Siegel 



Michael Sissenwine 



Richard Wetzel 



Richard G. Wiegert 



Douglas Wolfe 



Panel D assessed ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine resource management 

 decisions in the context of integrating and translating modeling structure and 

 results into a viable framework for addressing socio-economic concerns and 

 values. Our deliberations centered on the kinds of questions that might be 

 asked within this context and how they relate to various environmental impact 

 activities such as ocean dumping, ocean mining, coast line development, 

 pollutant and contaminant discharges, and oil and gas exploration of the Outer 

 Continental Shelf. 



The Panel noted that ecosystem modeling approaches and applications are 

 not directly amenable to addressing most socio-economic concerns associated 

 with marine resource management and environmental impact decisions and policies. 

 Ecosystem modeling efforts most often concentrate on assessing either the 

 distribution of inputs or the effect of inputs on ecological variables of no 

 direct socio-economic value. Specifically, traditional ecosystem models usually 

 relate, either empirically or mechanistically and at various levels of complexity, 

 the impact of various inputs to the system such as pollutant discharges on 

 various system variables such as standing stocks of phytoplankton or zooplankton. 

 Often pollutant /contaminant inputs are related to dispersal patterns and 

 environmental concentrations. 



To truly model ecosystem alterations within a meaningful socio-economic 

 context, the traditional modeling approaches must be restructured to incorporate 

 methodologies suitable for addressing the social and economic consequences of 

 ecological impacts. While this observation may seem obvious, the development 

 and incorporation of these integrative methodologies are nontrivial problems. 

 The translation of quantified modeling results into the socio-economic realm of 

 cost-benefit ratios, quality of life standards, commercial and recreational 

 values, legalities, esthetics, short-term versus long-term advantages and dis- 

 advantages, etc., is neither a simple process nor an easy task. It is, however, 

 one that should be attempted with more detail and regularity than has been done 

 in the past. 



To make ecosystem models more useful within a socio-economic context, 

 modelers should consult with anthropologists and economists to determine what 

 modeling outputs can be effectively valued. Questions concerning the most 



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