12 



for circulation modeling. Although the majority of studies during this period were designed to support pre- 

 lease environmental analysis, monitoring studies were also undertaken to evaluate the impacts associated with 

 OCS oil and gas exploration activities. The three-year Georges Bank Monitoring Program is considered a key 

 study in demonstrating that effects of drilling fluids and cuttings from OCS exploration are limited to within a 

 few hundred meters of the discharge and are not long-term in nature. 



By 1985, the MMS had concluded that it would be appropriate to reevaluate the focus of the ESP. One step in 

 this reevaluation was the initiation of work on a Long-Range Study Plan. Another step was to request the NRC 

 to review the ESP for a second time to offer advice on the future direction of the program. Additionally, a more 

 recent GAO audit was completed in June 1988. This generally favorable audit recommended changes in the 

 MMS - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration relationship in the management of Alaska OCS 

 Environmental Assessment Program studies. 



Two recent publications have played key roles in the current ESP restructuring. They are "Oil in the Sea: Inputs, 

 Fates, and Effects," published in 1985 by the National Academy of Sciences and "Long-Term Environmental 

 Effects of Offshore Oil and Gas Development," edited by Boesch and Rabalais in 1987. 



FUTURE DIRECTION AND CHANGING EMPHASES IN THE ESP 



When development of the Long-Range Study Plan began in 1985, it was envisioned as a link between the ESP 

 and the anticipated events in a specific five-year period. It became obvious, however, that the long lead time for 

 planning environmental studies, along with the time necessary to complete many field studies, did not lend itself 

 to a five-year planning window. Consequently, the MMS chose to focus on likely pre- and post-lease events for 

 the next ten years to determine study needs. Because these needs must be considered in the context of existing 

 information, the document presents an analysis of the current status of knowledge for each topical area of 

 proposed studies. The Long-Range Study Plan then concentrates on issues of high priority amenable to 

 resolution through scientific investigations. 



A second draft of the Long-Range Study Plan is nearly ready for release for public comment. The plan will not 

 provide detailed descriptions of all anticipated studies. Rather, it will focus on goals and objectives to be 

 accomplished. This information will direct the annual planning efforts, during which individual studies are 

 identified and funding priorities are set. 



Based on the Draft Long-Range Study Plan, it is possible to summarize some of the expected future trends for 

 the ESP. The major shift in emphasis to post-lease issues will continue. In frontier areas where environmental 

 information is scarce and where the potential for oil and gas development and production exists, the ESP will 

 continue the collection of descriptive information for use in pre-lease decision-making. There are lease areas, 

 however, where an adequate data base exists on which pre-lease decisions have been made in the past and can 

 be made in the future. Additional descriptive studies designed only to refine the baseline data for pre-lease 

 decisions will not be supported. 



The ESP will focus on areas of known oil and gas resources as sales are held and exploration follows. In areas 

 with little or no potential for oil and gas development, limited or no study will be sponsored by the ESP. In 

 areas with oil and gas development and production, the ESP will undertake studies to monitor the effects of these 

 activities on the environment. These studies will concentrate on the evaluation of long-term, low-level cumulative 

 impacts of oil and gas development on the marine environment. Rather than merely documenting changes in 

 environmental conditions through classical monitoring techniques, the MMS plans to emphasize the development 

 of process studies to provide a better understanding of the mechanisms causing observed impacts. This change 

 in emphasis is demonstrated by this workshop ("MMS Northern Gulf of Mexico Studies Planning Workshop") 

 and others sponsored by the ESP. Session 2 of this workshop, "General Concerns in Long-Term Designs and 

 the Application of Process Studies", will provide a basis for deliberations concerning the development of process- 

 oriented monitoring for oil and gas production impacts in the northern Gulf of Mexico. 



Another trend evident in the Long-Range Study Plan is the phasing of studies to provide information at 

 appropriate times in the OCS decision process. Each phase of the Offshore Oil and Gas Program, from the 

 scheduling of lease sales through the production of hydrocarbon resources, has different information 



