and functional nature of the ecosystems of the northern Gulf of Mexico, 

 and to describe some of the known or projected effects of petroleum 

 development and other activities of man on these systems. The rationale 

 for the ecosystem context of this paper is that systems ecology has 

 matured in recent years and represents the most likely (if not only) 

 approach which can produce an approximation of the assimilative capacity 

 of the northwestern gulf to maintain its present equilibrium state 

 before a new, unexpected and avoidable state is actually attained. 

 Systems ecology has been developed to the point where succinct models of 

 key elements of a problem can be produced and these models can cope with 

 the non-linear relationships accounting for many multiple equilibrium 

 situations. This paper is presented as a first-order, holistic 

 overview, intended to identify some of the key system elements and 

 processes which need to be approximated to determine the nature and 

 direction of the present equilibrium state of the gulf, with emphasis 

 placed on evaluating the effects of oil and gas development. 



As a first-order overview, the approach in presenting the 

 characterization is towards simplification — perhaps overly so. The 

 volume of available descriptive information is very large and complex 

 processes are indicated. A comprehensive, written review of all the 

 data considering alternative scenarios would probably result in a report 

 too cumbersome for assimilation and would likely be accompanied by a 

 summary too shallow to allow an intelligent response. What I have 

 attempted to present is a medium-level, comprehensible, logical 

 characterization of the system which will increase insight into the 

 system, making it easier to judge and determine the effects of either 

 factors left out of the accounts or the errors in interpretation and 

 gaps in the data. 



