other factors also affect the selection of industrial sites. For ex- 

 ample, the growth of Fort Walton Beach and southeastern Walton County may be 

 limited by the scarcity of fresh water. The Corps of Engineers has reported 

 that cones of depression in the aquifer have formed "as a result of extensive 

 pumping for public supply and irrigation" (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

 1980a). Continued pumping, and particularly increased pumping to keep pace 

 with new development, potentially could result in "the eventual appearance of 

 saline water in the centers of the cones of depression" (U.S. Army Corps of 

 Engineers 1980a). So far this has not happened and is not likely to happen in 

 the foreseeable future. 



PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL TRENDS 



A report. Industrial, Irrigation and Other Water Needs , prepared for the 

 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers by the U.S. Geological Survey (1979), contains 

 projections of employment at the two digit level of the Standard Industrial 

 Code (SIC) through the year 2030. The projections were prepared for the U.S. 

 Geological Survey' by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Com- 

 merce, and are included as an attachment to the above named report. These 

 projections are shown in Table 22. 



The base year used in the projections was 1976; however, in the case of 

 some of the counties in Northwest Florida, some of the projections may have to 

 be revised because employment in manufacturing already appears to be higher 

 than expected. This can be seen by comparing the projections with the 1978 

 employment data for manufacturing shown in Tables 12-18. Escambia County 

 (Table 13) is a case in point. In 1978, 11,636 were employed in manufacturing 

 whereas the projection indicated that that number would not be reached until 

 the year 2000; consequently the projection for Escambia County must be revised 

 upward. Much the same applies to Okaloosa and Franklin Counties. The popula- 

 tion projections for Bay County were overestimated, but the projections for 

 the remaining counties appear to be reasonably accurate. 



ONSHORE IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES 



A major development of oil and gas production on the Outer Continental 

 Shelf (OCS) near Northwest Florida would have a major effect on onshore indus- 

 trial development. Phosphate mining in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico also 

 may have some potential. During the beginning stages of extensive OCS oil and 

 gas development, if it were to occur, there would be competition for existing 

 residential construction to meet the housing needs of OCS-related workers. In 

 addition, it is likely that some of the manufacturing industries that exist in 

 the area would redirect their production to meet the needs of offshore and 

 onshore activities, and that new industries would develop. These new develop- 

 ments would cause considerable strain on community infrastructures and other 

 public services. It is also likely that there would be major impacts on the 

 natural environment. A report on development, issued by the Governor's Office 

 of Planning and Budgeting, has recognized "that potential environmental 

 hazards of onshore development are greater than those of offshore development" 

 and former Florida Attorney General Robert Shevin once recommended that 

 "before offshore oil drilling was approved, tough restrictions be placed of 

 onshore development" (Hoedecker 1980). 



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