Currently (1982), the Getty Oil Company is seeking a ruling from the 

 courts to allow drilling after being turned down by the Florida Governor and 

 Cabinet. 



OCS OIL AND GAS PROJECTIONS 



Long-term forecasts by USGS for oil and gas production from the Gulf of 

 Mexico call for a gradual decline in production with ultimate depletion 

 sometime after 2000 (Figure 5). Production levels are not independent of 

 technolgoical innovation, economics, and market forces. For example, in old, 

 nearly depleted wells, oil could be forced out by steam injections and 

 increase the recoverable reserves in existing fields. Breakthroughs in oil 

 platform design enabled small, currently uneconomical fields to become profit- 

 able. As the complex relationships of technology, economics, and market 

 forces change, estimates of recoverable resources also change. 



The Resource Appraisal Group (RAG) of USGS assessed the undiscovered 

 recoverable oil and gas resources and developed the production predictions 

 shown in Figure 5. The RAG and the Office of Resource Analysis (also in USGS) 

 employ occurrence modeling, search modeling, and production modeling to esti- 

 mate field size distributions and supply curves. Data obtained from this 

 research are being used to develop a sophisticated model of the dynamics of 



700 



600 



500 



200 



100 



1975 



1985 



2000 



Figure 5. Oil and gas production for the Gulf of Mexico from 1975 to 2000 

 (U.S. Department of Interior 1980a, 1980b). 



144 



