-2000r 

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1948 



1958 



1968 



1978 



1988 



1998 



Figure 12. 

 innovation 

 1979). 



Simulation result of Hillsborough County model with technical 

 such as energy conservation implemented in 1983. (Sipe et al . 



In the Hillsborough County example, comparisons were made between dif- 

 ferent hypothetical future events that were generally outside the control of 

 the system under study such as changes in world oil prices. Depending upon 

 the likelihood of these hypothetical events, the researcher (or the decision- 

 maker) may identify other courses of action that minimize any adverse conse- 

 quences of the outside events. For example, one alternative scenario investi- 

 gated in the Hillsborough County study assumed that a future technological 

 breakthrough might cause energy prices to fall. Such a technological advance 

 would have numerous beneficial effects on society according to the simulation. 

 The Hillsborough County study also commented that the same simulation results 

 would be expected to occur if, for example, greater efficiency could be 

 attained in the use of presently available energy resources. In this case, 

 Hillsborough County governmental decisionmakers do have methods by which 

 energy conservation measures might be encouraged. And, to the degree these 

 methods improve the efficiency of the system's use of energy, the benefits -- 

 basically, an improved standard of living and quality of life -- suggested by 

 the simulation should be expected to accrue in the system. 



Whether or not energetics modeling is a useful research tool, even its 

 proponents admit that the development and simulation of a detailed energetics 

 model is an involved, complex process. There are alternatives to the complete 

 modeling process, however, and, under certain circumstances, these methods are 

 appropriate for comparing specific alternatives. 



301 



