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'•f forts to ttxpand Central Asian cotton production— which required 

 diverting large quantities of water front the rivers that feed the 

 Aral — has reduced the sea by over 40 percent of its volume and 60 

 percent of its surface area. The leaking and dumping of 

 pesticides into water supplies, the absence of water pricing 

 policies, and fierce competition for water — particularly among 

 the Uzbeks and Turkmen — have significantly worsened Central 

 Asia's critical water situation. Existing political, economic, 

 and ethnic tensions in the region are being further strained by 

 Aral "refugees'* moving to cities in search of guaranteed medical 

 care, secure employment, a stable soxirce of drinking water, and 

 essential foodstuffs. Central Asian leaders— faced with serious 

 economic and political difficulties— have discussed cooperation 

 on environmental issues, but have yet to formulate, much less 

 implement, a concrete plan to halt the Aral's desiccation. Even 

 under the best possible circumstances, with effective regional 

 cooperation and massive foreign assistance, it will take at least 

 five to tens years of consistent effort before any progress in 

 halting the Aral's destruction can be realized. Without such 

 cooperation, the Aral basin is likely to become an environmental 

 dead zone. 



15 



