Kellogg and Orvedal 5 



well developed for dairying and for vegetables, including potatoes. 



The great areas of undeveloped soil in the world are in the tropical 

 regions in Africa, South America, Central America, and several of the 

 great tropical islands. In southeastern Asia and India, on some of the 

 Pacific Islands, and in a few parts of other tropical regions, these soils 

 are now intensively used for crops. Yet there are great areas that are 

 hardly touched in relation to their potentialities. It seems reasonable to 

 suggest that at least twenty per cent of the unused tropical soils in the 

 Americas, Africa, and the great islands like New Guinea, Madagascar, 

 and Borneo could be cultivated. This would give us approximately one 

 billion additional potential acres. If we estimated the potential produc- 

 tivity of these tropical soils on the basis of the best results, say in Hawaii 

 and Java, the figure would be almost astronomical. It would be con- 

 servative to use experience in the Philippines as a guide, realizing when 

 we do so that this omits consideration of the great potential increases 

 in efficiency that could come with the application of modern science in 

 the tropics to the same extent we have applied it in the temperate 

 regions. For the northern soils, the 300 million acres north of the 

 temperate region, we may use Finland as a guide. 



Calculations indicate that with this new land we could more than 

 meet most items listed in the world food needs for i960 by the Food 

 and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. A few in short 

 supply could easily be increased through some shifts of the agricultural 

 pattern (6). 



This estimate of 1,300,000,000 acres is probably either too low or too 

 high. A satisfactory estimate cannot be had now. When checked with 

 a reliable soil map, which we may have in a few years, the results will 

 depend a great deal upon the economic assumptions used. Of course, 

 we shall never have an exact figure. At any rate, a large potential acre- 

 age exists. 



It must be emphasized that these new acres will be "difficult" acres 

 in contrast to some of the land settled by Americans in the past 100 

 years. There is very little new soil in the world simply waiting for the 

 plow. Most of these new acres will require clearing. They will need 

 careful management from the start. Some of the soils require terraces, 

 some levees, some partial drainage, and some need supplemental irriga- 



