Kellogg and Orvedal 7 



as now used by millions of farmers. Yet we know that the efficiency of 

 farm production is increasing at an accelerated rate. It has increased 

 considerably since the estimates were made by the Department of Agri- 

 culture and the land grant colleges. 



And we must recall again that the level of production we are seeking 

 will not be based upon history, nor based upon any mythical "natural 

 balance." // is that level of production on a sustained basis made possible 

 by modern science and technology in a peaceful world with reasonably 

 full employment. We seek an effective cultural balance between people 

 and resources. 



We in the United States and in western Europe have been inclined 

 to take for granted the enormous increases in efficiency of production 

 during the past 150 years. These have been reflected in yields for a long 

 time in Europe although not in the United States until recently. There 

 are several reasons for this difference. In the United States land has 

 been relatively plentiful and labor relatively expensive, except during 

 periods of depression. Alert farm managers are concerned as much 

 with reducing inputs as with increasing outputs. Many of our most 

 important improvements are designed to reduce labor even at some 

 sacrifice of total harvest. During the latter part of the nineteenth cen- 

 tury and the early part of the twentieth century, many millions of acres 

 of new soil were brought into use in the subhumid and semiarid re- 

 gions where normal yields are relatively low. Then, too, many of our 

 plant breeding programs have been concerned with widening the range 

 of soil types on which important crops may be grown rather than 

 simply increasing the yields on a few soil types. As a result, our farm- 

 ers have many more choices of crops than they had formerly. Some 

 farmers have allowed their soils to deteriorate seriously, even while suc- 

 cessful farmers were improving theirs.* Yet even so, there have been 



* Erosion, decline of organic matter, increasing acidity, loss of soil structure, 

 increasing salinity, soil blowing, and especially declining plant nutrients, are all 

 in the picture. However, there has also been improvement on many farms through 

 the use of lime on soils naturally acid, the use of fertilizers on soils naturally low 

 in plant nutrients, drainage, irrigation, the introduction of legume meadows, and 

 livestock farming. No one knows what the net result has been. Nor would it 

 make much difference to these estimates if we did know, since our efficiency is 

 so much higher than it was 200 years ago and so much lower than it could be 



