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THE TROPICAL AGRICULTURIST. 



[AVG. 2, 1886. 



THE OUTLOOK FOR CINCHONA 



GROWERS. 



The present critical state of the cinchona bark 

 market is a serious matter for cuitivators who 

 contemplate harvesting this year. Last September 

 we said that prospects were hopeful for planters, 

 as a syndicate had been formed in the United 

 States, to shut out English and German made 

 quinine, its members having determined to manu- 

 facture enormously, and even to sell at a loss for 

 a time if they could effect their purpose thereby. 

 As a matter of fact, prices did rise much higher 

 in October than they had done for a long time, 

 but this was followed by a sudden fall, from which 

 there has as yet been no recovery. In an inter- 

 esting review of this branch of trade Mr. Moens, 

 the ex-director of Government Plantations in .Java, 

 explains how this depression came about. When 

 the increased demand for bark last autumn began 

 to be felt on the Continent and in London, stocks 

 being at the time rather low, brokers, thinking 

 that consumption had overtaken production and 

 that the "unit" would soon be at lOd. advised 

 those who wished to be before the rush of South 

 American bark which such a rise would let in, to 

 hurry home their produce. The rush arrived as 

 was expected, but it was from a dili'erent quarter. 

 Ceylon had not been exporting as largely as usual, 

 and it was supposed that so much cinchona had 

 been harvested to pay for tea extensions that very 

 little remained. But encouraged by the brilliant 

 prospect held out to them, the Ceylon planters 

 managed to bring their total exports for 1885 to 

 the enormous total of 12 million lb.; and the 

 news of these shipments, which, it was feared, 

 would swamp the market, had by the end of 

 December driven the " unit " down to kl. Mr. 

 Moens thought when he wrote that this last eli'ort, 

 must have exhausted supplies. "I am of opinion" 

 he says, and am confirmed in it by statements of 

 very reliable authorities in Ceylon, that the ex- 

 ports from Colombo will not in 188(5 attain the 

 high figure of the preceding year, but will gra- 

 dually fall off." He has probably changed his 

 mind by this time for, notwithstanding the falling 

 market, over 10 million lb. have by last accounts 

 been already sent from Colombo this year, as 

 against 6 millions for the corresponding period in 



1885. A great deal of this is rubbish that will 

 probably be sold in London for a farthing a 

 pound, and will hardly pay for carriage to the 

 coast, much less for freight and charges, but the 

 uncomfortable fact remains that the total con- 

 sumption of good and bad bark last year was 

 about 20 million lb., and that if Ceylon goes 

 on at this rate for the remaining six months of 



1886, it will supply the whole quantity required 

 itself. 



But this after all, is very improbable. In the 

 first place the months of March and April in 

 Ceylon are considered the best to coppice in, and 

 a great proportion of the bark nmst be from trees 

 which have been thus cut down. In the second 

 place, the south-west monsoon, which is now on, 

 will for some time render any further harvesting 

 almost impossible. Nor need the fact of this large 

 export necessarily be discouraging to Indian planters. 

 As far as can be learned, little or no cinchona has 

 been planted in Ceylon during the last two or 

 three years, since the planters there became con- 

 vinced of the success of the tea enterprise, and to 

 a considerable extent the above large output is got 

 by working trees at an absurdly early age. It may 

 become an unpleasant necessity to shave mcciriibrax 

 3 feet high, but it can hardly be expected to con- 

 duce to the lougevity of a plantation. It would 



saem almost certain then tliat future years will 

 show very considerably smaller bark exports from 

 Colombo. This is admitted by every one in the 

 island who is acquainted with the planting districts, 

 and, indeed, the continued large yield seems to 

 have surprised the planters themselves. But while 

 we anticipate a large decrease we are not amongst 

 those who imagine that the fall will be to zero. A 

 large acreage of cinchona is still carefully cultivated 

 in Ceylon, and even should tea continue to be 

 a success there, it is unlikely that for as many 

 years as we need calculate about, it will entirely 

 supersede the earlier enterprise. Those who speak 

 of the probable rapid extinction of the Colombo 

 bark export perhaps hardly realise what such an 

 event would mean. Of the total of the 20 million 

 lb. used in manufacture last year, Asia contributed 

 the following proportions :— Ceylon 12,000,000 lb., 

 Java 1,300,000 lb. and India 600,000 lb. of which 

 last no less than 100,000 lb. was from Government 

 plantations. It is in fact hardly recognised that, 

 largely as it is extending cinchona cultivation in 

 India is very much a thing of the future as far 

 as making its influence felt in the European 

 markets is concerned. The large export from Java, 

 was, as we pointed out some time ago, the result 

 of the extensive coppicing and uprooting which 

 took place last year, on its being determined to 

 replace the inferrior varieties with ledger ; this is 

 an encouraging fact for Indian planters, for it 

 will check production for some time to come. Nor 

 can too great stress be laid on the huge increase 

 in consumption of quinine which has followed its 

 drop in price. Mr. Moens states, for instance, that 

 the total imports of bark in the five years 1865-69 

 were a million lb. or less than Ceylon alone sent 

 to Europe in 1885 ; yet at the end of last 

 year stocks were 19,000 packages less than in 

 the year before, and, moreover, a great deal of 

 what did remain unsold consisted of the compar- 

 atively worthless ciipvea bark, which is always 

 avoided as long as possible by buyers, thus show- 

 ing that manufacturers were able to absorb nearly 

 all that came into the market. Tlie value of the 

 cinchona alkaloids is becoming more generally 

 known all over the world, and in India especially, 

 where the lower grades: are largely sold in the 

 bazaars ; the opening out of Africa is also causing 

 a constantly increasing demand ; as is the em- 

 ployment of the bark in manufacturers not con- 

 nected with medicine, especially in brewing. 



To summarise the prospects of Indian growers, 

 we think that an improvement in jjrice may be 

 expected at the end of the year, or early in 1887, 

 when most of them will be offering their bark in 

 London. For the next few months a rise cannot 

 be expected, for even should the Ceylon export 

 fall off, buyers will not be inclined to ^lay highly 

 for a product that they cannot be sure the market 

 will not be glutted with at the first return of 

 prosperity. As for those whose plantations are 

 not coming into yield for a year or two, the out- 

 look is very hoi)eful, for there is very little plant- 

 ing going on except in India and in Java, and 

 should Ceylon send away even a quarter less than 

 she does at present — and this is a smaller decrease 

 than most people acquainted with the subject 

 anticipate — a glance at the figures given above will 

 show what room would be left for Indian bark. 

 The only competition planters in this country 

 would have to fear for the present would then be 

 South America, and as the bark from that country 

 cannot be made to pay at present prices, a large 

 rise in value must take place. Mr. Moens alludes, 

 in passing, to the competition of the Madras and 

 Bengal Governments with private enterprise. As 

 a former head of a cultivating department in 



