THE EUROPEAN WAR AND THE 

 LUMBER TRADE 



By R. C. Bryant 

 Professor of Lumbering, Yale University 



DURING the early days of the factors of great importance in the luni- 

 European war, many expressed ber market, 

 the conviction that all fomis of Previous to 1906 the lumbermen en- 

 business in the United States joyed prosperity, due to the rapid devel- 

 would profit to some extent because of opment of domestic trade in general, 

 the disturbance of the commerce of the The demand for lumber was great and 

 belligerent nations. The war has now the f. o. b. mill price of all construction 

 progressed far enough to show that, woods rapidly increased, culminating 

 wath the exception of a few industries, in 1907 in prices for yellow pine, for 

 this benefit will be deferred for some instance, which were in excess of those 

 time at least and that the losses sustained received at any period either before or 

 in the meantime through the disturb- since. 



ance of our own business conditions Stumpage also increased in value at a 



may prove greater than any future very rapid rate, and lumbermen were 



gains. encouraged not only to make heavy 



The lumber industry, the third among investments in raw material before the 

 our great industries in point of money price became too high but also to add 

 invested, is undergoing a period of greatly to the mill capacity of the 

 depression such as it has not experi- country. Many new mills were con- 

 enced for some years, due, in large structed and existing plants were also 

 measure, to the marked depression of enlarged to meet the insistent demands 

 our domestic trade caused both directly for construction lumber and railroad 

 and indirectly by the present war, material. The panic of 1907 had a 

 although the actual loss of our export demoralizing effect on building con- 

 lumber trade has been a secondary fac- struction and also curtailed the exten- 

 tor as compared to the reduction of sion of the railroad mileage of the 

 the home demand. country. Lumbermen found them- 



Lumber is a commodity which is a selves with a heav}^ investment and a 



necessity to ci\'ilized man, but unlike mill capacity greatly in excess of the 



foodstuffs and articles of clothing its normal demands, and the price of lumber 



purchase can be delayed temporarily dropped from $5 to $7 per thousand 



without serious consequences. During feet at the mill, reaching such a low 



periods of financial depression from level that many found it difficult to 



any cause whatever, we find that the prevent their business from going into 



purchase of lumber in large quantities bankruptcy. 



is early discontinued and is resumed Since that time there have been 



only after conditions have again begun periods when lumber market conditions 



to assume a normal state. have shown a change for the better, but 



More than ninety per cent of oiir as a whole the level of prices has not 



total lumber production is consumed by been high enough to enable the average 



the domestic market and in order that operator to earn a legitimate profit on 



the lumber trade may be brisk it is his investment. 



essential that our banking resources The railroads which in normal times 



shall be abundant, since this means are very large consimiers of lumber, 



minimum interest rates and ready loans, using several billion feet annually, have 



both of which foster railroad develop- purchased only sufficient material to 



ment and building construction, two keep their plants in operation and, for 



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