1908 



THE GOVERNORS' CONFERENCE 



317 



1850, 350 years, is estimated at about 125,- 

 000,000 metric tons; from 1850 to 1906, 56 

 years, at 1,113,000,000 metric tons, or about 

 nine times as great. 



In the case of copper the amount which 

 was taken out before 1850 in the United 

 States is inconsiderable, but in 1906 it 

 reached fifty-eight per cent of the world's 

 production. For the first half of the nine- 

 teenth century the copper production of the 

 world was 831,400 long tons, and for the 

 second half 8,675,899 long tons, o-- more 

 than ten times as much. 



The gold production of the world from 

 1493 to 1850, 358 years, is estimated at 152,- 

 779,050 fine ounces, and from 1851 to 1907 

 at 405,075,135 ounces, or about three times 

 as much. 



The increase in the amount of silver 

 mined was not so great as for gold. The 

 estimated silver product from 1493 to 1850, 

 358 years, is 4,816,939,012 fine ounces, and 

 from 1851 to 1907, 58 years, 5,166,804,675 

 fine ounces. 



The above figures illustrate the point that 

 the exploitation of the base metals, iron, 

 copper, lead, and zinc, was relatively unim- 

 portant until the middle of the last century, 

 whereas in the case of the noble metals the 

 amounts exploited before 1850 were import- 

 ant. So far as the progress of the world is 

 concerned, there is no question that the 

 base metals are of immeasurably greater 

 consequence than the noble metal. s 



Statements similar to those concerning 

 the base metals may be made even more 

 emphatically in reference to coal. Illus- 

 trative of this in the United States, the 

 coal production of the year 1856 was 12,293,- 

 000 metric tons, whereas for 1907 it was 

 about 492,000,000 metric tons, or more than 

 thirty-three times as great. Similar, al- 

 though perhaps not so striking, figures 

 might be given for other countries ; so that 

 it is safe to say that the amount of coal ex- 

 ploited in the last half century for the 

 world is several times as great as the 

 amount mined during all previous time. 



The above statistics show that during 

 the last half century our metallic resources 

 and coal have been drawn upon at a rate 

 which has never before been dreamed of. 

 This revolution has been largely due to the 

 rise of applied science and its application to 

 ^machinery and transportation. If instead of 

 the last half century the last quarter century 

 only were considered, the enormous drafts 

 upon our metallic resources would seem 

 even more startling. During this period the 

 total value of the annual metallic product 

 of the United States has increased from 

 about $447,000,000 to over $2,000,000,000 or 

 more than four times. 



Since the great acceleration in the ex- 

 ploitation of our metallic resources has 

 occurred so recently, the yardstick with 

 which we are to project into the future is 

 very short. We do not know whether the 

 acceleration of exploitation of the past 



few years will be continued at the same 

 rate, but it seems rather probable that the 

 time is near at hand when the speed of ac- 

 celeration will lessen. But whatever we 

 may conclude in reference to this matter, 

 we cannot doubt that for many years to 

 come the amount of metals extracted for 

 any one decade will exceed that of the pre- 

 vious decade — that is, that the acceleration 

 will proceed at some rate. Also it has been 

 seen that while an approximate estimate 

 can be made of the reserves which are yet 

 to be developed or discovered in unexplored 

 territory. Hence it is impossible to make 

 any definite forecasts as to the time when 

 the ores of any given metal will be 

 exhausted. 



Upon the whole, the foregoing very brief 

 review of the situation does not warrant 

 such extremely pessimistic views as have 

 sometimes been stated in reference to our 

 reserves of iron, lead, copper, zinc, gold, 

 and silver. It is rather probable that we of 

 this generation shall not see any great 

 shortage of these metals. The same may 

 be true for the next generation ; but even 

 the most sanguine calculation cannot hold 

 out the hope that the available high grade 

 ores of iron, copper, lead, zinc, gold, and 

 silver, at the present rate of exploitation, 

 will last for centuries into the future. And 

 what are one or two centuries compared 

 with the expected future life of the Nation? 



But it may be said that when the metallic 

 ores are mined and reduced the metals are 

 but put into a more available form. In 

 short, that they are capitalized. This is 

 true in large measure for all the metals. It 

 may be very well illustrated by the world 

 supply of gold, now in the treasuries of the 

 banks and circulation among the people, es- 

 timated at about $7,000,000,000. However, 

 it is plain that with the baser metals, lead, 

 zinc, copper, and iron, we are very careless 

 in preserving the existing accumulations. 

 These materials are so handled that the 

 yearly losses are very great. By care and 

 economy the losses could be immensely re- 

 duced and thus our capital of metals kept in 

 a relatively unimpaired condition. 



Certain it is that it took the building of 

 the world, involving concentration and re- 

 concentration of the metals, to produce the 

 ore deposits. The process of their forma- 

 tion is so slow that so far as we are con- 

 cerned it may be ignored. We and our des- 

 cendents are in the position of a man who 

 has in the bank a definite amount of money 

 upin which he may draw during his life- 

 time. He may be more or less ignorant of 

 the amount which is available in the bank, 

 as we are ignorant of the amount of metal- 

 lic ores available in the bank of the earth. 

 It is therefore plainly our duty in exploit- 

 ing the metal ores to do this in such a 

 fashion that the reserves of lower grade 

 products not now available because of 

 market conditions may in the future be ex- 

 ploited. Also it is plainly our duty to use met- 



