462 



FORESTRY AND IRRIG.'.TION 



ordinary steam engine utilizes not more than 

 four or five per cent, of the heat energy in 

 coal, and our best modern steam electric 

 plants show a heat efficiency not exceeding 

 ten or twelve per cent. With the gas engine 

 and producer gas the heat efficiency can be 

 more than doubled, and still higher efficiency 

 seems probable with higher compression or 

 through the use of other possible improve- 

 ments. This is a most promising field for 

 development, and it is entirely possible that 

 the gas engine may revolutionize our methods 

 of using fuel for the production of power. 



Beyond these gains, which may be con- 

 sidered well within the limits of possible at- 

 tainment by present knowledge, there stands 

 the theoretical prospect of still greater econ- 

 omies, the possibility of which cannot be de- 

 nied so long as methods employed in devel- 

 oping energy from coal results in a waste of 

 from seventy-five to ninety-five per cent, of 

 the potential energy which nature has stored 

 in the coal. But the science of the present 

 time does not permit us to assume any radi- 

 cal increase in efficiency of fuel engines be- 

 yond the limits which I have indicated and 

 our only safe course is to base our estimate 

 upon the progress of the present time with 

 such reasonable allowance for improved 

 economy as is dictated by recognition of prog- 

 ress of the art along lines now within the 

 horizon of possible science. 



Where the water power is the source of 

 supply, electricity promotes economy for rea- 

 sons identical with the foregoing, except that 

 absence of fluctuation of load is relatively less 

 important, but the great gain which results 

 from electric transmission is the utilization of 

 water powers remote from power markets. 

 Where several water powers along a stream 

 are developed it becomes possible to utilize, 

 in conjunction with the larger and more 

 cheaply developed powers, others which, con- 

 sidered independently, could not be utilized 

 to advantage. 



Prior to 1870 the use of water power in 

 manufactures exceeded that of steam power. 

 Water power expressed in percentage of the 

 total power employed has since steadily de- 

 clined, falling from 48.3 per cent, in 1870 to 

 T1.2 per cent, in 1905. During the correspond- 

 ing period steam power increased from 51.8 

 per cent, in 1870 to 78.2 per cent, in 1900. The 

 census of 1900 showed a marked falling off in 

 the rate of increase in the percentage of 

 steam power used as compared with the rate 

 prior to 1890, and this was accentuated in 

 -the census of 1905, when the percentage of 

 steam power fell to 73.6 per cent, of the total. 

 This check to the ascendency of directly ap- 

 plied steam power was due to the introduc- 

 tion of electric power. In 1890 electric power 

 was negligible. In 1900 it constituted 4.8 per 

 cent, of the total. In 1905 this had increased 

 to 1 1.8 per cent. — a marvelously rapid growth 

 when the aggregate increase of over one mil- 

 lion horsepower in five years is considered. 

 Ijf the present rate of increase prevails until 



1910 electric power will have reached eighteen 

 per cent, of the total and steam power will 

 have dropped to sixty-eight per cent. If the 

 same rate of increase is maintained until 1930, 

 electric power as applied to the manufactur- 

 ing industries will exceed the amount of 

 steam power applied direct. 



The tendencies illustrated by the changes 

 that have taken place in the methods of 

 utilizing power in manufacturing, apply gen- 

 erally to other industries. The increasing 

 use of power is phenomenal ; the steam en- 

 gine as a source of power is thus far para- 

 mount in them all, but the percentage of elec- 

 trically applied power is increasing at nearly 

 double the rate of increase of the total power 

 used. 



The extraordinary growth of the electric 

 lighting industry is familiar to all. Unfor- 

 tunately the results of the special census of 

 1907 are not yet available, but the indica- 

 tions are that the five years that have elapsed 

 since the previous census will show phenom- 

 enal growth. During these five years the 

 gross sales of the great electric manufactur- 

 ing companies have doubled, and the propor- 

 tion of the output consisting of electric power 

 apparatus and generating units of large size 

 has greatly increased. An influential factor 

 in the growth during this period has been 

 the rapid development of long distance 

 hydro-electric power transmission plants. 



Since the displacement of horse and cable 

 cars in the cities a few years ago, electric 

 railways have been extended to suburban 

 and interurban districts and are rapidly form- 

 ing a network over the entire thickly settled 

 portions of the country. In the nature of their 

 traffic many of these roads are scarcely dis- 

 tinguishable from steam railroads, and many 

 railroads are using them as feeders. In a 

 few cases railroads have converted steam 

 operated branches into electric lines. 



A beginning is being made in the electrifi- 

 cation of our steam railroads. The New 

 York Central, the Pennsylvania, the Long 

 Island, the New York, New Haven & Hart- 

 ford, the Grand Trunk, the Northern Pa- 

 cific, the Erie, the Southern Pacific and others 

 have electrified portions of their lines, and 

 most of these are now in successful operation. 

 Manj-^ of these roads are extending the elec- 

 tric zone. Thus far most of this work has 

 been induced by terminal requirements, tun- 

 nels, heavy grades or other special conditions 

 which emphasize the advantages to be de- 

 rived from electric operation. The increase in 

 capacity, convenience, and greater earning 

 power as well as the economies resulting 

 from electric operation will stimulate the 

 electrification of steam railroads, just as these 

 factors have stimulated the use of electric 

 power in other industries. The problem pre- 

 sented is larger because of the necessity of 

 interchangeability of equipment, and the de- 

 velopment must necessarily be gradual on ac- 

 count of the magnitude of the interests and 

 the large capital expenditures involved. The 



