The Lumber Supply of the World 



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'N figuring future lumber prices, it must be remem- 

 bered that all quotations up to this date are directly 

 dependent on additions to the producing districts of 

 new primeval forests, from which the demands were 

 filleil by lumber until then valueless and therefore cheap 

 in the first stages of export," says an article on "The Con- 

 ditions and the Future of Swedish Forests," by F'rof. 

 Gunnar Anderson, in the popular magazine, Skof/cn 

 (The Forest), from which is here reprinted the following 

 interesting statement about the world's lumber supplv : 

 "As long as the steadily increasing demands for lumber 

 can be filled by continuously opening up new primeval 

 forest land, it cannot be expected that lumber prices will 

 reach the height required by normal producing conditions, 

 that is, to yield a proper profit relative to the value of 

 the land, and the costs of production. The great ques- 

 tion for the Swedish forestry industry, therefore, is: 

 Are the primeval forests, accessible in the world, soon 

 to be used up, or when will they be? 



"In the central parts of the European continent, the 

 primeval forests have gone long ago and the wood has 

 changed into a community of culture plants, completely 

 governed by man"s hands, and requiring considerable 

 labor and capital from man. They are the prototypes for 

 the forests of the future all the world over. In the Car- 

 pathian and Balkan countries, however, there are still 

 quite considerable districts of untouched forests. Yet 

 they are limited in size, and in order to exploit them 

 such costly railroads would be required that these for- 

 ests cannot greatly influence the lumber prices. 



"In Europe, our greatest competitor, and the only 

 dangerous one, is the great North Russian pine district. 

 At present it contains enormous, untouched quantities of 

 timber. However, for the greater part these are not ac- 

 cessible at a cheap price. The levelness of the country, 

 the comparatively slight rainfall, the rivers' chief direc- 

 tion toward the Arctic, their low-water state during the 

 large part of the year, the violent high water, which 

 sweeps down during the snow melting season from 

 South to North, the sparse population of the country, the 

 difficulties of navigating the Arctic, etc., all work to- 

 gether to making the shipping of lumber from these Rus- 

 sian woods to exporting points and consuming centers 

 hard and costly. In addition thereto, private owners 

 must ask a stump price for their wood, be it ever so low, 

 equal to that which the Russian government does on its 

 own vast dotnain. 



"It is not quite impossible that the state would be 

 willing to give away outright the fully grown wood to 

 promote timber felling and effect settlements within cer- 

 tain districts. At the present prices only a strij) of cer- 

 tain width along the waterways could be exploited with 

 economical profit. Corresponding to every $.1353 per 

 1,000 board feet at which lumlier j)rices are rising in the 

 432 



world market, a wider strip can be taken. For us, how- 

 ever, this will mean an equivalent rise in our lumljer 

 prices. 



"The greatest supply of pine wood lumber which in 

 our time can be found on the earth, probably is in the 

 Siberian pine forest district — the so-called taigan from 

 Ural in the West to the Pacific Ocean in the East. Is it 

 possible to bring this to the market at prices ruinous to 

 us? I certainly believe that the answer to this is 'No.' 

 With the very great a\vakening which Siberia will experi- 

 ence in the next half century, strenuous eli'orts will cer- 

 tainly be made to make this possible. Its existence will 

 be of the greatest importance to the development of the 

 country itself and indirectly it will relieve the world mar- 

 ket from its scarcity of lumber, of which Siberia's agri- 

 cultural districts would have otherwise absorbed a good 

 quantity. Some possibilities may also exist for exporta- 

 tion to other countries in need of lumber. Corea and 

 East Siberia will surely furnish considerable quantities 

 to China anri Jaj)an where continuous development after 

 the European model creates a still greater demand for 

 lumber. From the West Siberian laif/aii it is likely that 

 attempts will be made to ship lumber by rail, and above 

 all by sea, from C)b and Yenisei, also over the Arctic, to 

 the central countries of the world market. I am con- 

 vinced that by means of modern technology, within some 

 decades it will be possible to do somewhat safe shipping 

 from these rivers to Europe, but I am also absolutely 

 sure that the freight rates will be so high that lumber 

 can stand them only when lumber prices have risen so 

 much that forestry in Sweden has become a very lucra- 

 tive business. For the reasons stated it can hardly be 

 conceived that from the enomious reserves of the Rus- 

 sian and Siberian forests any great quantities can be 

 thrown on the world market at any price which would 

 be ruinous to the industry. 



"(Jut of the great pine wood districts of the ancient 

 world there remains but the Indian district on the slopes 

 of the Himalaya and in its valleys. There, the English 

 for decades have expended extensive and successful labor 

 to bring about good forestry conditions. India is the 

 only country under English rule — not even excepting the 

 mother country — in which rational forestry is practised 

 to any considerable extent. 



The enormous quantities of lumber which a big, richly 

 populated country', developing at a lively rate, like India, 

 demands, will hardly be filled from its own forest sup- 

 plies. Conscientious cultivating of these may. of course, 

 decrease the demand for foreign lumber and thus to some 

 degree aid in keeping down the world market prices, but 

 in the long run it will not be able to hold them on the 

 same level at which they generally have stayed during 

 this decade. 



"If we then pass o\-er to the new world, we find on the 



