192 TRANSACTIONS OF THE 



taken as a prediction on my part, for such is not the case. I simply refer to the coinciding 

 incidents of dry seasons occurring at six-year intervals, followed by two dry seasons of seven- 

 year intervals, then returning again to the six-year interval. This being the seven-j-ear interval 

 following a six-year one, I thought it proper enough to bring it to the notice of the general 

 reading public; not that I was the first one to notice such a i-egnlarity in the return of each dry 

 season in the last thirty-five years, for several persons spoke to me about it some days ago. The 

 knowledge of this being the seventh season from the last dry one, which usually produces 

 another one, may do good to a great many. There may be seven or eight inches of rain yet this 

 season; if so, it would bring the total rainfall up to ten or eleven inches. I will name the dry 

 seasons, and the reader will readily see the regularity of the interval between each. 



The first dry season occurred on the second, season after the Forty-niners arrived here, that 

 season being 1850-1, when the very small amount of but 4.71 inches was measured. Precisely 

 six seasons from the above date, which was 1S56-7, there was a comparatively dry season, there 

 being but 10.46 inches. The next dry season did not occur for seven years, being the one of 

 1863-^ — 7.87 inches. The season of 1862-3 was not remarkable for its excess of moisture, for 

 there was but 11.58 inches; at any rate it cannot be classed as a dry season. The next dry one 

 repeated itself in seven years, and occurred in 1870-1 — 8.47 inches. Now the next dry one 

 returns to the six-year interval, and occurs in 1876-7 — 8.96 inches. According to the records 

 above we find that after a dry season has occurred in six years it was followed by two of seven 

 j^ears each, and as the last was a six-year interval (judging from the periodicity of dry seasons 

 during the last thirty-five years), the present (seventh) season is the one to be a dry one. How 

 far one can judge from such a thing as a past record remains to be seen; but everything points 

 to the truth of the laws of nature repeating themselves again this season as they have done in 

 the past, by giving a dry one. Let us hope for the better, but it is best to be prej^ared for the 

 worst. 



It will be seen by the annexed letter from General John Bidwell 

 that the season of 1843-4 was a dry one, which strengthens the above 

 theory: 



Chico, January 21, 1884. 

 James A. Barioick, Signal Service, Sacramento, California: 



Sir: Having been in California something more than forty-two years, I can state of my own 

 knowledge, to wit : 



In the Fall of 1841 the country was without bread, because of the preceding dry Winter. 

 What little wheat there was had to be saved for seed. 



1841-2 — The Winter was one of numerous and great inundations (fully equal to 1849-50). 



1842-3 — This season was quite open ; had a moderate rainfall. 



1843-4 — This Winter, with the e.xception of one good rain in November or early in December, 

 and a light rain in March, was almost rainless. No crops were raised in the Sacramento Val- 

 ley, and nothing to speak of elsewhere. Fremont's first arrival in California was in March, 1844. 



1844-5 — Considerable rain this Winter, as I well remember, having camped out during the 

 whole of it on a campaign (the war which resulted in the exiDulsion of Governor Micheltorena). 



1845-6 — Very wet; floods and inundations. 



1846-7— Copious rains ; good wheat harvest. 



1847-8 — Some early rains; open Winter; good rains in March. 



1848-9 — Very snowy; considerable rain. 



1849-50 — Very wet (but this comes within the historic period, which is unnecessary for me to 

 repeat). 



Pardon the libertv I have taken. Very respectfully yours, 



JOHN BIDWELL. 



A later letter from General John Bidwell is as follows : 



Chico, January 26, 1884. 



James A. Barioick, Sergeant United States Signal Service Corps, United States Army, Sacramento, 

 California : 



Dear Sir : Your letter of this date is before me. In regard to the rainfall of 1850-1, I am 

 decidedly of the opinion that 4.71 inches is small for this part of the Sacramento Valley ; because 

 I know there were fine and even quite heavy rains in March and April. The little grain sown 

 was good. The Fall of 1850 was drj', I think. You say, " I see by your report that the season 

 of 1839-40 must have been exceedingly dry." I meant to say 1840-1; for I found there had 

 been no harvest upon my arrival in California in the Fall of 1841. Therefore it was but three 

 years to 1843-4, the next dry year, which was, I think, the driest of all the years I have seen. 

 In regard to my belief, which you ask, I will say I am no weather j^rophet-^in attempting to 

 divine the seasons have failed too often. Am un%villing to believe that eight inches of rain, 

 after the dry Winter one year ago, will give good crops in Sacramento County. The seven and 

 six years theory of dry seasons, with some exceptions, is rather striking, and must be more so 

 if future observations shall coincide. , But all my interests and hoiJes are that this year may be 

 numbered among the exceptions. 



I am, with much respect, very truly yours, 



JOHN BIDWELL. 



