Probable Future of Auxinology 821 



deeper and deeper. And so the rate of production of oil goes down 

 and down and ultimately declines to zero. This has actually happened 

 to oil fields in our country. It is an interesting fact that oil production 

 during the exploitation of an oil field first increases with time along 

 an S-shaped curve. It then reaches a maximum and this is followed 

 by decline also along an S-shaped curve. The curve which describes 

 production as a function of time is symmetrical about its maximum. 

 Rate of production rises and falls along a symmetrical bell-shaped 

 curve, a curve which resembles appropriately enough that which de- 

 scribes how growth rate of the Avena coleoptile section rises and falls 

 as we increase auxin concentration. Perhaps, then, the model that we 

 should use for forecasting the future of auxinology is not just an un- 

 sophisticated doubling every so often but rather that of the exploita- 

 tion of a field. 



Perhaps we should think about the exploitation of a field of 

 knowledge. And so I have investigated auxinology from this stand- 

 point too. With what kinetics is auxin lore being extracted from 

 nature? 



I have approached this question by studying how many papers 

 are written each year on auxinological subjects, and I have found out 

 how this number has changed with time. Now we can't just count 

 the number of papers that are produced each year because some of 

 them aren't very good, will never be read again, and don't really con- 

 stitute an extraction of knowledge from nature. As measure I have 

 used, therefore, the yearly number of auxinological papers which 

 someone else has thought worthwhile to cite. This is a better measure. 

 These are essentially contributions to the theory of auxinology — 

 contributions which have influenced other workers. 



Now to kinetics. The first paper of modern auxinology was, of 

 course. Professor Went's contribution published in the year 1928, so 

 in that year there was one paper. During the next year two or three 

 papers appeared, and in the next year four or five. The number of 

 papers per year on auxinological subjects thereafter increased steadily 

 and exponentially, following a nice S-shaped curve, attaining a maxi- 

 mum in the years 1948 to 1954. And, I have found to my horror and 

 dismay, that we are already on the declining limb of the curve; we 

 have seen the rise and are now witnessing the decay of auxinology. 

 We may predict that the yearly number of auxinological papers will 

 be down to half-maximal in about the year 1965, and that the last 

 paper on auxinology will be written about 1985. 



This would appear to be a rather dismal conclusion. However, 

 it isn't actually quite so gloomy as it seems, or rather it places 

 gloom where no gloom is really intended. I think that you will agree 



