40 



30 



Peak to Event Onset 

 15 (1862 -1976 > 



o 1 ig I 



FISHERY BULLETIN: VOL. 76, NO. 3 



Pacific region. Based on the association between 

 El Nino type events, drought years and index fea- 

 tures, and also an assumption that the drought 

 will set in during May of involved drought years, 

 we arrived at values in the column headed "Peak 

 to drought onset" (Table 6). Figure 8 shows the 

 resulting statistics which could be applied to In- 

 donesian drought predictions. 





040 



~ Peak to Drougtit Onset 



30 



(1862-1953 a 1976) 



f^J fO fO 



Figure 8. — Frequency distributions of time (in months) be- 

 tween preevent peaks in triple 6-mo running mean plots of 

 Southern Oscillation index anomalies (see text) and: 1) the onset 

 of subsequent El Nino type events (assuming onset is in March of 

 involved years); 2) the onset of associated Indonesian droughts 

 (assuming onset is in May of involved years). The number of 

 cases falling within a class interval is entered at the top of the 

 relevant histogram event. 



Class Limits (months) 



Table 7. — Association of east monsoon droughts in Java with El Niiio type events. 



Drought 

 years 



El Nino type 

 event years 



Notes 



Drougtit 

 years 



El Nino type 

 event years 



Notes 



1914 



Slight lowering of index 



Drought data unavailable 1954-75 

 1976 



93% of east monsoon droughts can be associated with El Nino type events 



Table 8.— Association of El Nino type events with east monsoon droughts in Java. 



El Nitio type 

 event years 



Drought 

 years 



Notes 



El Nino type 

 event years 



Drought 

 years 



1844 



1845-46 



1850 



1852 



1855 



1857 



1864 



1868 



1871 



1873 



1875 



1877-78 



1880 



1884-85 



1887-89 



1891 



1896 



1899-1900 



1902 



1844 



1845 



1850 



None 



1855 



1857 



1864 



None 



None 



1873 



1875 



1877 



1881 



1883-85 



1888 



1891 



1896 



None 



1902 



Drought in 1853 



Index low 1880-81 



28 (east monsoon drought situations) - 36 (separate events) '^ 78, 

 78°o of El Nirio type events can be associated with east monsoon droughts. 



676 



