40 SCIENTIST 



In the first place, there are apparently complex situ- 

 ations which really aren't complex at all. They can be 

 dealt with simply by breaking them down into their con- 

 stituent parts, studying each part separately, and adding 

 up the results. To explain what is meant by this, let us 

 consider the motion of a bullet fired from a gun. Super- 

 ficially this appears to be a very complex matter, but it 

 really is not because it can be broken down into a series 

 of more or less isolated forces each of which can be studied 

 by itself. The bullet is acted upon first by the explosion 

 of the powder, then by the friction inside the gun and the 

 twisting effect of the rifling. Throughout its flight it is 

 acted on by gravity, the varying resistance of the air, the 

 extra forces generated by the wind, and the CorioHs force 

 resulting from the earth's rotation. The effects of each one 

 can be studied in isolation and then simply added together 

 in order to plot the bullet's entire course. The force of 

 gravity is not much affected by the strength of the powder 

 or the resistance of the air; nor do any of the other forces 

 behave differently from the way they would if they were 

 acting all by themselves. 



There are other sorts of complex situations which are dif- 

 ficult to break down and analyze in this bit-by-bit fashion. 

 The first class has been called "disorganized complexity" 

 by Dr. Warren Weaver. In such cases a large number of 

 events are connected with one another in such a way that 

 simple "cause and effect" analysis becomes impossibly 

 cumbersome. For example, anyone who has studied physics 

 knows that it is a relatively simple matter to predict what 

 will happen if one billiard ball strikes another at a given 

 spot and with a given speed. It is only a little more difficult 

 to predict what will happen if there are three balls on the 

 table. Increase the number much beyond this and the 

 original method of dealing with the problem becomes in- 



