332 ANNUAL, REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



the spring of 1917 and 1918 for the information of the admin- 

 istrative officers of the Government, and came very close to final 

 estimates. 



(3) The demand for crop and live-stock estimates by counties. 

 This demand developed prior to the war, and during the war it 

 became more and more insistent. The bureau has realized the de- 

 sirability of making its estimates by counties as well as by States 

 to meet the growing demand for such information, but has been 

 unable to shift from a State to a county basis (a) because of the 

 time that has elapsed since the last census by counties, during which 

 intervening period great changes have occurred in many States; (h) 

 because of the enormous increase in detailed work involved in chang- 

 ing from estimated totals for 48 States to estimates for nearly 3,000 

 counties; and (c) because of inadequate funds and force, which Avould 

 not permit of further expansion of the service. However, during the 

 war period, with such emergency funds as were available, it was found 

 practicable to change more or less completelj^ from a State to a county 

 basis in six States and to make a beginning in a considerable pro- 

 portion of the others, the change being made in the oiRces of the 

 field agents for those States. The details of the county estimates are 

 published in the State reports issued by field agents and not in the 

 Monthly Crop Reporter published at Washington. During the 

 present fiscal year all field agents vrill attempt to collect and tabu- 

 late data by counties, so that following the 1920 census the entire 

 system of crop reporting will be on a county basis, if sufficient funds 

 are provided by Congress to enable the bureau to consummate this 

 plan. County estimates localize crop and live-stock data so as to 

 be of more practical use than mere State totals, and such localiza- 

 tion tends to increase the accuracy of the reports. They show the 

 agricultural resources and production of each county, as Avell as 

 surplus and deficiency of supply; equalize distribution; facilitate 

 marketing; enable transportation companies to supply cars needed 

 for moving surplus crops, and manufacturers and merchants to pro- 

 vide farm machinery and supplies when and where needed; and 

 form the basis of much of the constructive work of the agricultural 

 colleges and county agents. 



(4) The demand for " commercial " crop and live-stock estimates, 

 i. e., estimates of marketable farm surpluses, which is the portion of 

 the crop that is sold from the farm, enters the channels of trade, be- 

 comes a part of the visible supply, and influences prices, has also 

 developed to a point where provision should be made for supplying 

 it. For half a century the bureau has been estimating total crop 

 and live-stock production, which includes not only the portions of 

 the crops which are marketed, but -the portions which are fed, con- 

 sumed, damaged, lost, wasted, or utilized in various ways on the 

 farm. It is necessary that total production should continue to be 

 estimated, because it is the basis of commercial production, the pro- 

 portion of the total which is marketed varying with market demands 

 and prices. On the other hand, it is the commercial production or 

 marketable surplus which makes up the commercial or visible supply 

 and in which producers, consumers, and distributors are alike inter- 

 ested. Dependable information concerning commercial production 

 of farm commodities is essential to any enlarged program of market- 



