BUREAU OF CROP ESTIMATES. 333 



ing. To meet partially the demand for estimates of commercial 

 production, the bureau has at various times estimated the percentage 

 of total production of certain crops in each State that is marketed 

 for each month of the year. In the case of apples, peaches, and truck 

 crops, these estimates have been published in terms of bushels, bar- 

 rels, crates, or car lots. In the spring of 1919 a program was pre- 

 l^ared for estimating the commercial production of the late crop of 

 white potatoes. Commercial estimates involve a rather intensive sur- 

 vey of the principal areas of commercial production, the organiza- 

 tion of a special corps of crop reporters, and the employment of 

 crop specialists who are familiar with the industry and can devote 

 their entire time to collecting, summarizing, and interpreting data 

 regarding the particular crops in such form as to be of practical use 

 to growers and to the marketing agencies. 



(5) Reserve stocks on farms. A further development of the in- 

 creased interest in the food supply during the war period has been 

 the demand for information concerning reserve stocks on farms. 

 This is closely related to the demand for information regarding com- 

 mercial production or marketable surpluses on farms, but it takes 

 the form of requests for information as to the portion of the total 

 marketable surpluses that remains imsold on farms at frequent in- 

 tervals. This information is essential in connection with estimates 

 of visible supply, that is, stocks of farm products in public and 

 private warehouses, mills and elevators, in transit, and in factories 

 and wholesale establishments. If the bureau were provided with 

 adequate funds, it would be entirely practicable to furnish such esti- 

 mates monthl}^ In the past it has been practicable to make such 

 estimates for only a few crops annually. The program for com- 

 mercial potato estimates provides for estimating stocks of potatoes 

 on farms monthly throughout the year. A similar program should 

 be developed for other crops. 



(6) New crops. Much interest was also manifested during the 

 war and since the war in estimates of new crops, or rather crops con- 

 cerning which dependable data were lacking, such as castor beans, 

 or phases of production, demand for and supply of farm and forest 

 products, such as rosin, turpentine, cotton linters, sorghum sirup, soy 

 beans and velvet beans, and the vegetable oils. 



(7) Live stock. No phase of crop estimating has been less satis- 

 factory than the live-stock reporting service by reason of its inade- 

 quacy. Because of lack of funds and facilities, these reports have 

 been limited to estimates of the number of animals on farms once a 

 year, the percentage of losses from disease and exposure annually, 

 the condition of live stock on a percentage basis, and the number of 

 brood sows, without any estimates whatever of milk, butter, cheese, 

 poultry and ef^fi; production. The live-stock industry is worth ap- 

 proximately $10,000,000,000, and yet the bureau has had less than 

 $50,000 available for reporting upon all classes of live stock. The ex- 

 penditure of $500,000 annually would be fully justified in furnish- 

 ing satisfactory monthly reports covering number, condition, age, 

 sex, and breed of different classes of live stock, and of dairy and 

 poultry production, slaughter, losses from disease, insects, exposure, 

 and other causes, farm prices, present and prospective supply of feed, 

 and similar data. Such estimates can be furnished for half the 



