No. ri. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 321 



restrict the percentage of their wheat area as has been found 

 necessary in all of the Eastern States. This they will be compelled 

 to do in order that the fertility of their soils may be maintained 

 that they may produce sufficient crops to justify their tillage. To 

 put out on any large scale more than one-third of the land adapted 

 to cereal crops in wheat is practically impossible in any system of 

 agriculture tliat is to continue. 



The census of 19U0 shows that the per cent, of acres in wheat as 

 compared with the entire cereal crop is at present less than one 

 third. The total land in cereals, barley, buckwheat, corn, oats, rye, 

 wheat, rice and kaffir corn in 1900 in the United States was 184,- 

 994,588 acres. 



Ill 1880 the proportion of acreage in wheat to the entire cereal 

 crop was 29.8 per cent.; in 1890, it was 23.9 per cent.; in 1900, it 

 was 28.4 per cent., an average for the three decades of 27.4 per cent., 

 or 6 per cent, less than one-third. This is significant in that this 

 average prevails notwithstanding the fact that the great wheat 

 States of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada. 

 North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah and Wash- 

 ington had an average of 64.4 per cent, of acreage of cereal crops 

 in wheat. These states have doubtless almost, or altogether, 

 reached their maximum acreage in wheat, and will gradually reduce 

 their area of this crop in future years. Ten states, California, 

 Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, 

 New Mexico and Wisconsin, have already begun such reduction. In 

 1880 the percentage of acreage in wheat to the entire cereal crop 

 in these ten states was 45.1. In 1900 this had been reduced to 32 

 per cent., a difference of 13.1. This same change will undoubtedly 

 occur in all of the other great wheat producing states inside of the 

 next three decades as the ranch system gives place to the smaller 

 farm. 



If, however, no reduction occurs and not only the present average 

 of 27.4 per cent, of acreage of cereal crops be put out in wheat, but 

 the area be extended to embrace full 33 1-3 per cent., it would 

 amount to only 61,664,862 acres, or 14,359,033 acres above our pres- 

 ent acreage, as reported by the Agricultural Department for 1906. 



At the present average rate of production during the last decade, 

 13.8 bushels per acre, 61,664,862 acres would produce 850,975,095 

 bushels of wheat per year. Tliis at 5.25 bushels per capita would 

 support 162,090,494 persons, a population which, according to Mr. 

 Hill's estimate, would be reached about 1938, or in 30 years. 



PROVISION FOR THE FUTURE. 



What are we doing to anticipate this event? We are endeavor 

 ing to extend the wheat area by reclaiming waste lands througL 

 irrigation and drainage, and the introduction of varieties adapted 

 to districts where the fall of rain is too small to permit of the 

 growth of the varieties hitherto in use. This is practically a con- 

 tinuation of the policy of extending the area in order to meet 

 futur(^ demands. That these methods of extension must sooner or 

 later terminate needs no demonstration. 



In addition to this somewhat mechanical method there have been 

 established agricultural colleges, agricultural experiment stations 

 21—6—1907. 



