REPOKTS FROM COUNTY SOCIETIES. 609 



very much increased in 1SS2, and comparing this product with the total product of 

 the country, 1,024,917,800 bushels, the insignificance of the report from Crawford 

 county becomes apparent; yet to persons unacquainted with the geography and 

 production of the State, this will be considered as important a report as one from 

 Kalamazoo, Lenawee, Oakland, or Washtenaw. In the preparation of the Michigan 

 reports every answer is carefully examined, and all unreasonable or evident!}^ erron- 

 eous answers thrown out. Again, the ISIational Bureau cannot, like the States, 

 correct by any actual canvass, each estimate before the next is made. The National 

 census is taken only once in each period of ten years, and never until 1S80 has there 

 been a census of the crop acreage. On the other hand, all of the States publishing 

 monthly reports collect the crop statistics annually by actual canvass. The advantage 

 this gives to the States, as compared with the National Bureau, is obvious. 



In Michigan the estimates are usually based upon the totals in the farm statistics 

 which are collected annually. Thus if the farm statistics show that in a given town- 

 ship there were 500 acres of corn produced last year, and the correspondent esti- 

 mates the present acreage at 90 per cent, or 110 per cent of last year's acreage, we 

 know exactly what he means, and have no difficulty in making the public understand 

 what is meant. 



In like manner the yield is estimated until it can be definitely ascertained after 

 the crop is harvested. Last fall through correspondents the Department furnished 

 blanks for a threshers' record of the acreage and yield of wheat and oats. Eeturns 

 were received of the actual yield, machine measure, of about one-sixth of the wheat 

 acerage of the State. These returns and the total acreage as shown in the farm sta- 

 tistics, form the basis of our estimate of the total product. 



What has been accomplished? Upon this subject, referring to the crops of 1881, 

 John R. Dodge, statistician of the Department of Agriculture at Washington, says: 



"The wheat liarvest of 1881 in the United States furnishes a striking illustration 

 of the effect of statistics upon prices. Buyers were urging moderate views; the 

 National and State reports sliowed a crop of less than 400,000,000 bushels, instead of 

 500,000,000; the growers advanced their rates, refusing to sacrifice the five to ten 

 cents difference per bushel. The value to growers of this information, at the moder- 

 ate rate of 4 cents per bushel, on 250,000,000 bushels sold, would reach S10,000,000. It 

 is probable that the publication of approximately accurate crop statistics, during 

 the past year of comparative failure in the production of the United States, saved to 

 the producers of cotton, wheat, corn and other producers, at least §20,000,000, which 

 otherwise would have gone into the pockets of the dealer and middleman, possibly 

 without a dollar being saved to the customer." 



It is obvious that it would be impossible to measure accuratedly in dollars and 

 cents, the value to the public of the reports issued. AVe know, however, that in 1881 

 the wheat crop of the country was a comparative failure. In order to secure this 

 crop at the least possible cost it was necessary for those interested to convince the 

 producers that the crop, though somewhat lighter than the preceding, was yet a 

 heavy one, and that prices could not therefore advance. The efforts made to accom- 

 plish this purpose were prodigious. I doubt if ever in the history of the grain trade 

 in this country was there such a determined effort as in 1881, to prove the crop a 

 larger one than it really was. It cannot be known how far these efforts would have 

 been successful had it not been for the crop reports published in Illinois, Ohio, and 

 Michigan. These reports, made up from the estimates of thousands of correspond- 

 ents residing in the best wheat growing sections, showed that in these States at 

 least, the crop would not exceed one-half to two-thirds of the crop of 1880. The 

 Department had confidence in the judgment of their correspondents, and therefore 

 maintained persistently thi'oughout the season, that the estimates as given in the 

 reports were substantially correct. Note the effect these reports had upon the mar- 

 ket. Cash No. 2 spring wheat sold in Chicgao on the ISth of July at 81 11^. advanced 

 to §1 19i at the end of the month, and did not fall below $1 19 again during the 

 year. It frequently reached $1 38, and once touched $1 .41. Of course the sudden- 

 ness of the rise and the fluctuations in price are due in large part to speculation, but 

 the rise itself must be attributed to accurate information of the immense shortage 

 of the crop, furnished mainly, if not entirely, by the State crop reports. The aver- 

 age price during August was about eighteen cents higher than on the ISth of July, 

 with tliese facts before us we may approximate somewhat roughly, jperhaps, the 

 benefit of the State reports to the producers of this State. 'J'he wheat crop of the 

 State in ISSl, it is now known, amounted to about 20,000,000 bushels. Of this it 

 would take about 7,000,000 bushels for seed and to bread the farmers, leaving about 

 13,000,000 bushels for market. 



There could have been but a small amount of the Michigan crop marketed previous 



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