THE NEW EPISTEMOLOGICAL OUTLOOK 303 



here speaking of the laws that have been actually dis- 

 covered and formulated on the old quantum theory and 

 the new. These laws indicate several possibilities in the 

 future and state the odds on each. In general the odds 

 are moderately balanced and are not tempting to an 

 aspiring prophet. But short odds on the behaviour of 

 individuals combine into very long odds on suitably 

 selected statistics of a number of individuals; and the 

 wary prophet can find predictions of this kind on which 

 to stake his credit — without serious risk. All the success- 

 ful predictions hitherto attributed to causality are trace- 

 able to this. It is quite true that the quantum laws for 

 individuals are not incompatible with causality; they 

 merely ignore it. But if we take advantage of this 

 indifference to reintroduce determinism at the basis of 

 world structure it is because our philosophy predisposes 

 us that way, not because we know of any experimental 

 evidence in its favour. 



We might for illustration make a comparison with 

 the doctrine of predestination. That theological doc- 

 trine, whatever may be said against it, has hitherto 

 seemed to blend harmoniously with the predetermination 

 of the material universe. But if we were to appeal to 

 the new conception of physical law to settle this question 

 by analogy the answer would be : — The individual is not 

 predestined to arrive at either of the two states, which 

 perhaps may here be sufficiently discriminated as 

 State 1 and State 2; the most that can be considered 

 already settled is the respective odds on his reaching 

 these states. 



The New Epistemological Outlook. Scientific investiga- 

 tion does not lead to knowledge of the intrinsic nature 

 of things. "Whenever we state the properties of a body 



