Chapter I 

 THE INTERPRETATION OF HISTORY 



Ever since men have ^viitten down their thoughts for the 

 benefit of their successors, they have tried to peer into the 

 future to form some idea of the events to come. For this 

 purpose, they have reHed upon auguries and upon observa- 

 tions of the stars; but the only method that is now generally 

 accepted is based on consideration of the past and expectation 

 that the future will follow the trends of the past, especially 

 the recent past. 



Sometimes the conditions of human life continue un- 

 changed for long periods. Excavation of the cities of the 

 past, as well as their recorded history, shows us that often life 

 continued in those cities for generation after generation \vith 

 little change in the w^ay of living and even little change in 

 the material things— the tools and weapons used by the 

 people. During such periods of stability, the records show 

 a general belief that the stability would continue, that human 

 civilization is essentially a static system. As the Preacher 

 writes, 'The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; 

 and that which is done is that which shall be done: and 

 there is no new thing under the sun." * 



In attempting to look into the future by the use of our 

 records of the past, we are trying to discern in history some 

 general principles that we may expect to govern the order of 

 events. F. A. von Hayek considers it a contradiction in terms 

 to demand that history should become a theoretical science 

 and believes that the demand arises from the study of the 

 social sciences by those trained in the natural sciences who 



* Ecclesiastes 1:9. 



