2 THE PATH GF SCIENCE 



attempt to create a new science of society to satisfy their 

 own ideals. Von Hayek considers that the events of history 

 are "unique" and that "the creation and dissolution of the 

 Roman Empire or the Crusades, the French Revolution or 

 the Gro^vth of Modern Industry are unique complexes of 

 events which have helped to contribute the particular cir- 

 cumstances in which we live and whose explanation is there- 

 fore of great interest." * 



However, while we may accept the view that the facts of 

 human history are unordered in detail, it is not impossible 

 that taken on a broad scale they may show some order. There 

 is nothing obviously false in assuming that human history 

 passes through cycles during ^vhich there is a change in some 

 factor in a definite direction. It would be possible, for in- 

 stance, for the length of human life to vary either progres- 

 sively or periodically as time continued. As far as the author 

 knows, there is no evidence for such a phenomenon; but if 

 the facts suggested it, there is no fundamental reason for re- 

 jecting it. H. G. Wells, indeed, holds that we are justified 

 in considering history as a whole to be a science. f He says, 

 "History is no exception amongst the sciences; as the gaps 

 fill in, the outline simplifies; as the outlook broadens, the 

 clustering multitude of details dissolve into general laws." 

 The nature of these laws is evidently of the first importance, 

 since upon them will depend the future that w^e may expect 

 and, therefore, any action that we may take to modify that 

 future. No pattern that we can detect in history can pos- 

 sibly foretell the future in detail; the past contains no maps 

 of the things to come. Nevertheless, history does fall into 

 patterns "as the outlook broadens," and these patterns may 

 be valuable for our guidance. 



The views that men have held of the patterns of history 

 have had the greatest influence upon the ^vhole thought of 



* F. A. von Hayek, "Scientism and the Study of Society, II," Eco- 

 nomica, N.S., 10, 34 (1943). 



f H. G. Wells, Introduction to The Outline of History, London, 

 George Newnes, Ltd., 1920. 



