THE INTERPRETATION OF HISTORY 9 



events in two cycles ^vhile realizing their differentiation aris- 

 ing from the differences between the cycles. It is useless 

 merely to mention likenesses in history— to compare Alex- 

 ander with Caesar or Buddha with Christ. Nevertheless, 

 these likenesses must be recognized at the same time that 

 their differences are realized. 



Collingvvood compares Spengler's cyclic theory with the 

 doctrines of Plato, Polybius, and Vico, and points out that 

 Spengler apparently did not know of the work of Sir Flinders 

 Petrie, ^\hich is discussed later. Probably the popularity of 

 Spengler's book arises from his claim to foretell the future. 

 According to Spengler, the present era is that of the collapse 

 of a civilization— a plutocracy disguised by demagogism and 

 no^v^ called "democracy"— corresponding to that of the second 

 century B.C. in Rome, when the Roman republic was col- 

 lapsing and the civilization of the ancient world as a ^vhole 

 was moving to^vard the tyranny of the Roman Empire and 

 the darkness that followed it. This idea of Spengler's seems 

 to lie at the root of much of the totalitarian philosophy. But 

 Spengler's claim to foretell the future is, as CoUingwood 

 points out, baseless. Even if the general pattern is repeated 

 in cycles, there is no evidence that those cycles resemble 

 each other closely enough or are sufficiently uniform in length 

 or intensity to enable us to predict anything except that there 

 will continue to be cycles. 



The tremendous events of the last ten years, during w^hich 

 some of the most active and capable nations have challenged 

 the ideals on which western civilization was founded and 

 plunged into world-wide war to enforce their challenge, have 

 produced doubts in the minds of many thinkers as to the 

 validity of the idea of progress. Some years ago, Mr. Philip 

 Cabot wrote to a friend: 



The period covered by my father's life, and most of my 

 own, was one in which wise men in Western Europe and 

 in America looked forward to the future with confidence 

 and hope. Of course, their world was menaced by the 

 dangers which have always distressed mankind— war, pesti- 



