200 THE PATH OF SCIENCE 



ficient"— doing better in some ways what has ah^eady been 

 done. It has become familiar to man in economics, in 

 ^vork of general welfare, in the mere mechanics of time- 

 saving. The other path, extending beyond specific concep- 

 tions, leads to random and bold experiment— to pure re- 

 search, where discovery is often unexpected. The most 

 remarkable discoveries of the next eighty years will be of 

 that kind. 



It is interesting that even those w^ho are most anxious to 

 introduce the maximum of planning into the control of scien- 

 tific research agree on its failure in regard to discoveries of 

 the greatest importance. J. D. Bernal says: 



In any survey of the business of scientific research, gen- 

 eral lines of advance can be seen and fairly probable con- 

 clusions drawn from them. What cannot be seen are the 

 possibilities of fundamental, new discoveries and their 

 effect in revolutionizing the whole progress of science. The 

 practical problem is to see that science advances on the 

 ^\ idest and most comprehensive front, being prepared to 

 accept and use as welcome gifts the radical discoveries that 

 come in its way.* 



This is in fact, of course, the abandonment of planning. 

 It is these very revolutionary discoveries that make it im- 

 possible to plan the future of science. 



When looking back, it is very easy to see how science could 

 have been planned. Looking forward, all we can do is to 

 continue to spread the frontiers of our knowledge and, as 

 Bernal says, "to accept and use as welcome gifts the radical 

 discoveries that come in our way." 



Phillips f points out that since progress is made by trial 

 and error, and its extent is therefore proportional to the 

 number of trials, the conditions most favorable to progress 

 will be those that favor the greatest number of trials. These 

 conditions will be those where the number of independent 

 thought centers is greatest, that is, the conditions of maxi- 



* J. D. Bernal, The Social Function of Science, p. 343, New York, 

 The Macmillan Co., 1939. 



f Chapter II, page 19, footnote. 



