230 THE PATH OF SCIENCE 



This application of the methods of physical science to the 

 study of society has been extended to history, so that those 

 who believed that a cyclic pattern could be discerned in his- 

 tory have desired or have been urged to "verify" their theory 

 by relating it to the present course of events or even by 

 prophesying the future. If the prophecies were confirmed, 

 the theory would be "verified," just as the reappearance of 

 Halley's comet confirmed the calculations of that great as- 

 tronomer. This is, of course, absurd; we know nothing of the 

 future, and the actors in the drama of history cannot possibly 

 understand the part that they themselves play in that drama. 

 This is true in fact, and it is also true even if we assume that, 

 when viewed from the standpoint of the future, the present 

 happenings will fall into a definite pattern. If we are pre- 

 pared to accept provisionally Petrie's cyclic theory (which can 

 only be justified strictly for art), a glance at Figure 1 (Chapter 

 II, page 32) will show that according to Petrie the present 

 corresponds to the end of the medieval cycle, while the modi- 

 fication suggested in Figure 2 places the present at the rising 

 stage of a modern cycle. Which is right cannot be deter- 

 mined for several hundred years even if the cycles continue 

 unperturbed by the unprecedented rise of science. 



While the techniques of the physical sciences cannot be 

 transferred to the field of sociology, the scientific method it- 

 self can and must be used for the study of the structure of 

 society, its reaction to changing conditions, and the adjust- 

 ments required to enable it to retain stability as those condi- 

 tions change. An example of the application of the scientific 

 method to a primitive society is Malinowski's * study of the 

 social organization of the Trobriand islanders, which de- 

 pends upon the elaborate ceremonial trading system known 

 as the kula. A scientific study of modern industrial society 

 by T. N. Whitehead f is based to some extent upon field 



* B. Malinowski, Argonauts of the Western Pacific, London, Rout- 

 ledge, 1922. 



f T. N. Whitehead, Leadership in a Free Society, Cambridge, Harvard 

 University Press, 1936. 



