WORLD CONTROL OF ATOMIC ENERGY 25 



ever, that the steps that are now planned may lead to a stopping o^ slowing 

 of the race before it is too late. 



In discussing a program for possible attainment of effective world 

 control of atomic energy we must be aware of the difficulties to be over- 

 come and form an estimate of the time available for reaching the goal. 

 I wish to consider particularly the stages that are likely to arise during an 

 armament race and the degree to which these will bring insecurity. This 

 must involve a frank discussion of the characteristics and capabilities of 

 particular nations. 



FOUR STAGES OF AN ATOMIC ARMAMENT RACE 



In the first stage which now exists we alone have atomic bombs and 

 gradually acquire a stock pile. During this stage we are secure but other 

 nations may feel insecurity to the extent that they are not sure of our 

 intentions. 



During the second stage one or more other nations will be making 

 atomic bombs but will not yet have accumulated stock piles sufficient to 

 destroy all of our major cities whereas we will presumably have enough to 

 destroy theirs. Any atomic bomb attack on us would be followed by 

 devastating retaliation ; so we still feel moderately secure but other nations 

 are very insecure. 



The third stage will arrive when several nations have stock piles of 

 bombs and means for delivering them sufficient to destroy all major enemy 

 cities. Any attack will almost surely be followed by retaliation and will 

 lead to world war. All nations will then be very insecure. 



If the race continues long enough, a time will come when one nation, 

 perhaps not the United States, discovers how to make bombs so powerful 

 or so cheaply that it becomes possible not only to destroy the cities of the 

 enemy, but to cover practically the whole country and to kill so much 

 of the population and destroy so many of the bomb launching sites that 

 there can be no efi^ective retaliation. During such a fourth stage the inse- 

 curity will become intolerable. A nation which believes itself able to strike 

 without suffering from retaliation and fears that some other nation will 

 soon reach that stage may feel itself justified in launching an attack to 

 prevent future annihilation. A war started under such circumstances is 

 not likely to be a draw. The victor will then have to do what Hitler tried 

 but failed to do — exercise absolute world control — even if originally it had 

 no desire for world conquest. 



WHAT NATIONS CAN GET ATOMIC BOMBS AND WHEN? 



There are fortunately no easy ways to make atomic bombs. Because of 

 the nature of the chain reaction it is not possible to make bombs much 



