26 PHENOMENA, ATOMS, AND MOLECULES 



smaller than those already used. The isotope separation needed to pro- 

 duce pure U-235 is extremely costly and must be carried on in very large 

 plants to be economical. The piles used in making plutonium require many 

 tons of materials of extreme purity and the recovery of the small amounts 

 of plutonium that are produced is made difficult by the radioactivity of the 

 products which necessitates remote control of complex chemical processes. 



There is now no such thing as "the secret of the atomic bomb." Details 

 of the construction of the bombs and of technical processes of manufac- 

 ture are now being kept secret but this will not delay the building of atomic 

 bombs by other nations by more than a year or so. 



To produce bombs a nation needs a few scientists of high caliber with 

 a large staff of scientifically trained men, well developed industries, skilled 

 technicians, and an efficient organization. Such countries as Sweden and 

 Switzerland might meet these requirements, but the populations are too 

 small to support projects of the magnitude needed unless in the future far 

 easier ways of making bombs are discovered. 



A nation will be led to undertake such large projects only by sufficient 

 motivation and incentives. These involve primarily questions of prestige 

 and the intensity of the feeling of insecurity which may develop during 

 an armament race. With small nations prestige and even insecurity are 

 not likely to be sufficiently strong incentives to cause them to engage in 

 large projects since these nations are already accustomed to seeing other 

 nations outstrip them in military preparations. 



The high cost of producing atomic bombs is not a serious obstacle for 

 large nations, especially when we consider that these take the place of 

 other weapons which would cost even more. The fact is that atomic bombs, 

 in terms of the damage done, are the cheapest weapons ever devised. The 

 cost of manufacture of a bomb, once the plant is in operation, has been 

 given as roughly $1,000,000, and such a bomb destroys nearly everything 

 within an area of about ten square miles. Over suitable targets the damage 

 done vastly exceeds the cost of the bomb and its delivery. The ratio is at 

 least ten times more favorable than for other types of bombing. 



England is undoubtedly the nation, other than the United States, that 

 can first produce atomic bombs. However, because of our understanding 

 of the English people and our confidence in their motives, I doubt if 

 English possession of these bombs will create any strong feeling of in- 

 security in America. 



The next country to make bombs will probably be Russia. Because of 

 the differences in the forms of government between the Soviet Union 

 and the United States and the lack of mutual understanding that has long 

 characterized our relationships, both nations are likely to feel insecurity 

 during an atomic armament race. 



