Probability and Entropy 



IN this chapter I am going to speak of the 

 application of a kind of mathematics which, 

 while based on arithmetic, occupies an inde- 

 pendent position of great significance. It is a 

 subject which should be taught in every elemen- 

 tary school, but the average educated man has 

 no knowledge of it except that which he may 

 have derived from a practice which society re- 

 gards as vicious. I refer to the theory of proba- 

 bility, of which the elementary principles are of 

 daily applicability. 



You may say, "I am not a betting man" ; but 

 have you not registered a bet with the insurance 

 company that your automobile will be stolen 

 this year.^ When you double your opponent's 

 bid at bridge are you not taking a chance? 

 Every decision in life is a gamble, frequently 

 involving highly complex features, but it is in 

 the midst of such complexities that the elemen- 

 tary methods of probability may often be suc- 

 cessfully invoked. 



Sometime perhaps the science of logic will 

 not regard every statement as true or false, but 



