CHANCE 



A good maxim for the research man is " look out for the 

 unexpected." 



It is unwise to speak of luck in research as it may confuse our 

 thinking. There can be no objection to the word when it is used 

 to mean merely chance, but for many people luck is a meta- 

 physical notion which in some mystical way influences events, and 

 no such concept should be allowed to enter into scientific thinking. 

 Nor is chance the only factor involved in these unexpected 

 discoveries, as we shall discuss more fully in the next section. 

 In the anecdotes cited, many of the opportunities might well 

 have been passed over had not the workers been on the look-out 

 for anything that might arise. The successful scientist gives 

 attention to every unexpected happening or observation that 

 chance offers and investigates those that seem to him promising. 

 Sir Henry Dale has aptly spoken of opportunism in this con- 

 nection. Scientists without the flair for discovery seldom notice or 

 bother with the unexpected and so the occasional opportunity 

 passes without them ever being aware of it. Alan Gregg 

 wrote : 



" One wonders whether the rare ability to be completely atten- 

 tive to, and to profit by, Nature's slightest deviation from the 

 conduct expected of her is not the secret of the best research 

 minds and one that explains why some men turn to most remark- 

 ably good advantage seemingly trivial accidents. Behind such 

 attention lies an unremitting sensitivity."'*^ 



Writing of Charles Darwin, his son said : 



" Everybody notices as a fact an exception when it is striking 

 and frequent, but he had a special instinct for arresting an 

 exception. A point apparently slight and unconnected with his 

 present work is passed over by many a man almost unconsciously 

 with some half considered explanation, which is in fact no explan- 

 ation. It was just these things that he seized on to make a start 

 from." 28 



It is of the utmost importance that the role of chance be 

 clearly understood. The history of discovery shows that chance 

 plays an important part, but on the other hand it plays only 

 one part even in those discoveries attributed to it. For this 

 reason it is a misleading half-truth to refer to unexpected dis- 

 coveries as " chance discoveries " or " accidental discoveries ". 



33 



