HYPOTHESIS 



realistic in that the vast majority of hypotheses prove to be 

 wrong. 



When the results of the first experiment or set of observations 

 are in accord with expectations, the experimenter usually still 

 needs to seek further experimental evidence before he can place 

 much confidence in his idea. Even when confirmed by a number 

 of experiments, the hypothesis has been established as true only 

 for the particular circumstances prevailing in the experiments. 

 Sometimes this is all the experimenter claims or requires for he 

 now has a solution of the immediate problem or a working 

 hypothesis on which to plan further investigation of that 

 problem. At other times the value of the hypothesis is as a 

 base from which new lines of investigation branch out in various 

 directions, and it is appHed to as many particular cases as 

 possible. If the hypothesis holds good under all circumstances, 

 it may be elevated to the category of a theory or even, if 

 sufficiently profound, a "law". An hypothesis which is a 

 generalisation cannot, however, be absolutely proved, as is 

 explained in the chapter on Reason ; but in practice it is accepted 

 if it has withstood a critical testing, especially if it is in accord 

 with general scientific theory. 



When the results of the first experiment or observation fail 

 to support the hypothesis, instead of abandoning it altogether, 

 sometimes the contrary facts are fitted in by a subsidiary clarify- 

 ing hypothesis. This process of modification may go on till 

 the main hypothesis becomes ridiculously overburdened with 

 ad hoc additions. The point at which this stage is reached is 

 largely a matter of personal judgment or taste. The whole 

 edifice is then broken down and supplanted by another that 

 makes a more acceptable synthesis of all the facts now available. 



There is an interesting saying that no one believes an hypo- 

 thesis except its originator but everyone believes an experiment 

 except the experimenter. Most people are ready to believe 

 something based on experiment but the experimenter knows 

 the many little things that could have gone wrong in the 

 experiment. For this reason the discoverer of a new fact seldom 

 feels quite so confident of it as do others. On the other hand 

 other people are usually critical of an hypothesis, whereas the 

 originator identifies himself with it and is liable to become 



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