REPORT OF THE SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE, 23 



INTENTIONS-TO-PLANT SURVEYS, 



Producers need information to guide them in making proper 

 adjustments between the acreage planted to the various crops. The 

 department began last spring to furnish this information. This 

 was done by securing from many thousands of farmers prior to 

 spring planting statements of the number of acres of various crops 

 which they intended to plant. A similar report relating to fall- 

 sown crops was issued in August. These reports will be issued semi- 

 annually hereafter. When the purpose and value of these reports 

 on intentions to plant are thoroughly understood they will exert 

 an important influence and assist materially in adjusting acreage 

 by preventing the over or under planting of particular crops. 

 Although this is the first year that this work has been attempted, 

 favorable results have already been noted. 



A study is under way to ascertain in a scientific manner the factors 

 which should be considered in forecasting the price of a particular 

 product. There are signs of price changes which appear before 

 the changes occur and serve as advance indications of the price 

 movements. The practical purpose of the price analysis work is to 

 give the farmer the benefit of a scientific analysis of price movements 

 so that he may be able to make the best estimate possible from the 

 facts available. 



Farmers of necessity make production and price forecasts. On 

 the basis of their forecasts they plan what they will undertake for 

 the coming year, how much land they will use, the acreage they 

 will put into each of the various crops, the livestock they will keep, 

 and when they will market their products. While forecasts have 

 always been made by farmers, it is believed that facts can be fur- 

 nished which will make their forecasting more accurate than it 

 ever has been. 



The " intentions-to-plant " reports are not in any sense fore- 

 casts of acreage or yield, although they have sometimes been taken 

 as such. They indicate what is in the farmer's mind at the time the 

 report is made. When the general intention is made known indi- 

 vidual farmers can then change their intention in the light of the 

 new information. 



Following the reports on "intentions-to-plant" mentioned above, 

 it was felt that a comprehensive estimate of the general outlook 

 78007— AGB 1923 8 



