106 ANNUAL EEPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



When that pay scale does become operative we may hope to secure 

 applicants for our vacancies, among whom will be those qualified for 

 the most difficult tasks of professional weather forecasting. We must 

 not overlook the inexorable principle that the more successful and 

 accurate the service of professional forecasting becomes the more 

 exacting and expectant become the public demands. 



At the present day professional meteorology furnishes a fascinating 

 and alluring career for any student interested. The sequence of 

 weather conditions and the investigation and formulation of its laws 

 are not to be excelled in any scientific pursuit for infinite variety of 

 aspect, perplexing difficulties, and alluring interest. 



Meteorologists are on the threshold of new discoveries in the do- 

 main of forecasting. The public receive with respect and confidence 

 the forecasts of storms and weather for a few days in advance, but 

 they are not satisfied that we stop at that point. Letter after letter 

 is received from all sides asking the bureau for forecasts for sea- 

 sons, for months, and even years ahead. The only answer in all such 

 cases is that the bureau knows of no sound physical laws by which 

 such forecasts can be made with any promise of success. It will not 

 jeopardize the confidence it has won from the public by undertaking 

 to do a thing it can not do well and upon a scientific basis. 



There are a few perhaps more deeply versed in some other science 

 than meteorologj', such as astrophysics, sociology, geology, economics, 

 etc., who have essayed to claim discoveries upon which a species of 

 long-range forecasting is possible. The professional meteorologist 

 and forecaster, however, is inclined to view such enthusiasts as irre- 

 sponsible for the successful verification of such forecasts, as over- 

 optimistic, or as bold and daring pioneers who possibly may blaze 

 a way through the wilderness only to leave to others the difficult task 

 of establishing sure and safe communication. 



Conservatively, however, this much may be said of long-range fore- 

 casting: No scientist has or can demonstrate, I believe, that the 

 making of weather predictions of a general character for a consider- 

 able period of time in advance transcends any basic laws of nature 

 or is inherently impossible. That which is not impossible must be 

 possible, and let this be the justification of those who seek to advance 

 the science and art of meteorology in this difficult field. 



FORECAST SERVICE. 



Each year now adds new demands for special forecasts and serv- 

 ice in connection with outdoor exercises, entertainments, fairs, 

 aviation meets, airplane flights, etc., as the confidence of the gen'^ral 

 public grows in the service the Weather Bureau is able to give. 

 All of these demands were met and many expressions of apprecia- 

 tion of service rendered were received from the beneficiaries. The 

 forecasts issued twice daily for all sections of the country and 

 warnings of frosts, cold waves, storms, and heavy snows, when- 

 ever conditions warrant, all of which are widely and effectively 

 distributed through newspapers, by telephone, telegraph, radio, 

 maps, bulletins, cards and other means, meet general requirements; 

 but the rapidly increasing utilization of weather information by 



