132 ANNUAL. REPORTS OF DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



In periods of low and unsatisfactory prices the call for facts 

 concerning prospective supply and demand becomes more insistent. 

 The forecasting of crop and livestock production forms the basis of 

 our knowledge of the future market for farm products. One of the 

 main purposes of the new bureau during the past year has been to 

 strengthen present reporting methods and to supplement them by 

 special types of survej^s designed to give a more accurate knowl- 

 edge of future supplies. Such supplemental surveys were those of 

 intentions of farmers regarding the breeding of hogs and the j)lant- 

 ing of various crops. 



The pig survey, which was first made in June of the last fiscal 

 year, was repeated in December, 1922, and again in July, 1923. These 

 surveys gave an indication of intentions of farmers regarding the 

 production of hogs, and the distribution of the summary of these 

 intentions gave farmers a basis upon which to adjust their plans in 

 accordance with the indicated supply. 



FORECASTS AID IN READJUSTMENT. 



Intentions of farmers regarding the planting of various crops 

 were gathered in a survey early in the spring and again in mid- 

 season. The distribution of this information concerning preliminary 

 plans of farmers has enabled them to adjust acreage, and, to some 

 extent, to prevent over or under planting of particular crops. These 

 first efforts in this direction have been more or less experimental 

 and future surveys will be improved as our experience grows. 



Every farmer must plan in advance and forecast for himself 

 what he expects the future market to be. The two principal benefits 

 to be derived from agricultural forecasting are: First, it will assist 

 the individual farmer in wise planning in production and market- 

 ing; second, from a national standpoint, it will tend to promote 

 the right utilization of land and to avoid the losses to producers 

 from excess production and the unusually high prices to consumers 

 which accompany a shortage of production. 



The accuracy of the acreage and production estimates for crops, as 

 it has been increased by the adoption of various ideas, aids the 

 ordinary method of observation. Experiments with various measur- 

 ing systems by the use of automobiles and air photography are under 

 way. In livestock reporting a new step has been made by beginning 

 the estimating of actual supplies for market of cattle and sheep. 

 Estimates of the number of these animals on feed in the Corn Belt 

 and in western States have been made at intervals, accompanied by 

 weekly reports of the movement of lambs and feeder cattle to market 

 from the range. Through cooperation with railroads and other 

 shipping agencies, an accurate measure of the movement of these 

 animals is being attempted. 



The influence of world supply and demand upon prices received 

 by American farmers is being more closely studied, and through the 

 development of a world-wide crop and market reporting service the 

 facts concerning probable foreign competition and demand are being 

 made available. This has been accomplished through our agricul- 

 tural commissioners in England and Europe, through our other rep- 

 resentatives in foreign countries, through the International Institute 

 of Agriculture at Rome, and through an improved news service by 

 cable and radio. 



